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Game plans

Monday, March 23

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Rockets at Timberwolves

How the Rockets beat the Timberwolves

  1. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Timberwolves at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

How the Timberwolves beat the Rockets

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
  2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Timberwolves defense there ranks 8th (42.9% allowed).
  3. TempoPush the paceThe Timberwolves play at 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes (9th in pace), the Rockets at 95.2 (29th). Run and make them keep up.
  4. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Durant, Sengun, Smith, Thompson and Sheppard share the floor (272 min), they allow 123.1 per 100, against 114.2 for the team: attack it.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneHOU offenseMIN defenseMIN offenseHOU defense
At the rim65.8% (16th)62.4% (3rd)67.4% (8th)65.3% (12th)
Paint47.2% (6th)42.9% (8th)44.2% (16th)44.1% (15th)
Midrange40.2% (20th)40.0% (9th)42.1% (14th)39.1% (2nd)
Corner 337.3% (21st)40.7% (26th)38.5% (14th)38.5% (12th)
Above-the-break 336.1% (7th)33.9% (4th)36.5% (3rd)34.1% (6th)

02Matchups on Mon, Mar 23

10 games
  • Lakers at PistonsFinal

    How the Lakers beat the Pistons

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    How the Pistons beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim36.0% of Pistons shots come at the rim (3rd most), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pacers at MagicFinal

    How the Pacers beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).

    How the Magic beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Magic shoot 43.0% from midrange (10th), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Thunder at 76ersFinal

    How the Thunder beat the 76ers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    How the 76ers beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at HeatFinal

    How the Spurs beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Spurs play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Heat beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Spurs at 99.1 (13th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Grizzlies at HawksFinal

    How the Grizzlies beat the Hawks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    How the Hawks beat the Grizzlies

    1. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Hawks defense there ranks 18th (44.2% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Ty JeromeJerome (19.7 points per game): best in the paint (53% on 64 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%). 40% on the left side, 47% on the right; push him left.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Rockets at BullsFinal

    How the Rockets beat the Bulls

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Bulls at 101.9 (2nd). Make it a half-court game.
    2. AttackAttack midrange12.8% of Rockets shots come from midrange (2nd most), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).

    How the Bulls beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Bulls play at 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes (2nd in pace), the Rockets at 95.2 (29th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Raptors at JazzFinal

    How the Raptors beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Raptors shoot 67.7% at the rim (7th), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).

    How the Jazz beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Jazz give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at MavericksFinal

    How the Warriors beat the Mavericks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Warriors play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

    How the Mavericks beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nets at Trail BlazersFinal

    How the Nets beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Trail Blazers force turnovers on 13.0% of plays (7th) and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Nets play at 96.2 possessions per 48 minutes (25th in pace), the Trail Blazers at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the corner 312.2% of Trail Blazers shots come from the corners (5th most), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.6% of Trail Blazers shots come from above the break (5th most), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bucks at ClippersFinal

    How the Bucks beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Bucks shoot 36.9% from above the break (2nd), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Clippers beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Clippers defense there ranks 15th (38.8% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.