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Game plans

Friday, April 10

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Pistons at Pacers

How the Pistons beat the Pacers

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.
  2. AttackAttack the paint20.8% of Pistons shots come in the paint (10th most), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).
  3. TempoSlow it downThe Pistons play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Pacers at 100.3 (8th). Make it a half-court game.

How the Pacers beat the Pistons

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
  2. TempoPush the paceThe Pacers play at 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes (8th in pace), the Pistons at 98.3 (18th). Run and make them keep up.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneDET offenseIND defenseIND offenseDET defense
At the rim66.3% (15th)66.3% (17th)64.1% (26th)61.9% (2nd)
Paint42.0% (24th)47.1% (27th)45.0% (15th)43.8% (12th)
Midrange41.9% (15th)45.4% (30th)39.8% (22nd)39.7% (5th)
Corner 337.3% (20th)39.4% (22nd)37.2% (23rd)38.5% (11th)
Above-the-break 334.8% (19th)34.2% (8th)35.1% (15th)33.1% (1st)

02Matchups on Fri, Apr 10

15 games
  • Pistons at HornetsFinal

    How the Pistons beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Pistons defense there ranks 1st (33.1% allowed).
    2. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st), and the Hornets give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).

    How the Hornets beat the Pistons

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st) and the Hornets give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Heat at WizardsFinal

    How the Heat beat the Wizards

    1. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Heat defense there ranks 4th (39.5% allowed).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Wizards at 100.8 (5th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Wizards beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Wizards play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Cavaliers at HawksFinal

    How the Cavaliers beat the Hawks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    How the Hawks beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Hawks shoot 36.4% from above the break (4th), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pelicans at CelticsFinal

    How the Pelicans beat the Celtics

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th) and the Pelicans rank 28th on the defensive glass (71.4%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Pelicans play at 99.5 possessions per 48 minutes (11th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Celtics beat the Pelicans

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Celtics shoot 48.2% in the paint (3rd), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).
    2. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • 76ers at PacersFinal

    How the 76ers beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe 76ers shoot 43.0% from midrange (9th), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.

    How the Pacers beat the 76ers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Raptors at KnicksFinal

    How the Raptors beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Raptors defense there ranks 14th (38.6% allowed).

    How the Knicks beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Knicks defense there ranks 6th (64.2% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Magic at BullsFinal

    How the Magic beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Magic shoot 43.0% from midrange (10th), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    How the Bulls beat the Magic

    1. AttackAttack the rim36.1% of Bulls shots come at the rim (2nd most), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nets at BucksFinal

    How the Nets beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Nets defense there ranks 30th (42.3% allowed).

    How the Bucks beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Bucks shoot 42.9% from the corners (2nd), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Bucks shoot 36.9% from above the break (2nd), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at SpursFinal

    How the Mavericks beat the Spurs

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    How the Spurs beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Spurs shoot 43.6% from midrange (7th), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Spurs shoot 45.7% in the paint (10th), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Thunder at NuggetsFinal

    How the Thunder beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Thunder shoot 67.2% at the rim (10th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Thunder allow 39.9% there (24th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Timberwolves at RocketsFinal

    How the Timberwolves beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Timberwolves defense there ranks 8th (42.9% allowed).

    How the Rockets beat the Timberwolves

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Timberwolves at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Grizzlies at JazzFinal

    How the Grizzlies beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).

    How the Jazz beat the Grizzlies

    1. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Jazz defense there ranks 30th (48.8% allowed).
    2. AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Grizzlies allow 44.9% there (21st of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Clippers at Trail BlazersFinal

    How the Clippers beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Clippers play at 95.6 possessions per 48 minutes (28th in pace), the Trail Blazers at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.6% of Trail Blazers shots come from above the break (5th most), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at KingsFinal

    How the Warriors beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).

    How the Kings beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Suns at LakersFinal

    How the Suns beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrange11.7% of Suns shots come from midrange (6th most), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).

    How the Lakers beat the Suns

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Lakers shoot 73.4% at the rim (1st), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.