Mon, Oct 26 · 2026-27

Player projections

Expected minutes, points, rebounds, assists and threes for every player, from recent form, the opponent's defense by position and pace. Each number comes with an 80% range.

01Projections

Mon, Oct 26 · 9 games

Based on 2025-26: nobody has played 5 games of 2026-27 yet, so these use last season's per-minute numbers and expected minutes on each player's current roster. Players with fewer than 20 games last season are left out until they play. They switch to this season's games on their own.

WAS at CHA 7:00 PM ET · MIN at CLE 7:00 PM ET · CHI at BOS 7:30 PM ET · DAL at MIA 7:30 PM ET · IND at MIL 8:00 PM ET · PHX at OKC 8:00 PM ET · ATL at HOU 8:30 PM ET · MEM at UTA 9:00 PM ET · GSW at DEN 10:00 PM ET

Player	Matchup	MIN	PTS ↓	REB	AST	3PM
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGuard	vs PHXvs top-5 defense	33	30.418-43	4.11-7	6.33-10	1.60-3
Anthony EdwardsGuard	at CLE	35	28.717-40	4.92-8	3.71-7	3.31-6
Lauri MarkkanenForward	vs MEMvs bottom-5 defense	34	28.517-40	7.44-11	2.30-5	2.91-5
Donovan MitchellGuard	vs MIN	33	27.616-39	4.42-8	5.63-9	3.01-5
Nikola JokicCenter	vs GSW	34	27.016-38	12.68-18	10.87-16	1.60-3
Giannis AntetokounmpoForward	vs DAL	25	25.815-38	9.25-14	5.22-9	0.40-2
Stephen CurryGuard	at DEN	30	25.715-37	3.41-6	4.62-8	4.22-7
Jamal MurrayGuard	vs GSWvs bottom-5 defense	34	25.014-36	4.31-7	7.04-11	3.11-6
Kevin DurantForward	vs ATL	35	24.914-36	5.22-9	4.62-8	2.20-4
Keyonte GeorgeGuard	vs MEM	33	24.814-36	3.91-7	6.63-10	2.61-5
Devin BookerGuard	at OKCvs top-5 defense	33	24.414-35	3.71-6	5.52-9	1.80-4
Pascal SiakamForward	at MIL	33	23.813-35	6.63-10	3.91-7	1.70-4
James HardenGuard	vs MIN	34	23.313-34	4.72-8	7.94-12	2.91-5
Cooper FlaggForward	at MIA	33	21.511-32	7.03-11	4.52-8	1.00-2
Jalen JohnsonForward	at HOU	34	21.511-32	9.65-14	7.34-11	1.50-3
Bam AdebayoCenter	vs DALvs bottom-5 defense	32	21.411-32	10.76-15	3.71-7	1.80-4
Jaren Jackson Jr.Forward	vs MEMvs bottom-5 defense	31	20.911-31	6.13-10	2.10-4	1.90-4
Norman PowellForward	at BOS	29	20.811-32	3.31-6	2.30-5	2.61-5
LaMelo BallGuard	at CLE	28	20.411-32	4.92-8	7.34-12	3.82-7
Brandon MillerForward	vs WASvs bottom-5 defense	30	20.011-31	4.82-8	3.41-6	3.11-6
Alperen SengunForward	vs ATL	32	19.810-30	8.65-13	6.03-10	0.50-2
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerGuard	at HOUvs top-5 defense	33	19.810-30	3.21-6	3.41-6	3.01-5
Jerami GrantForward	at UTA	30	19.610-29	3.71-6	2.40-5	2.41-5
Dillon BrooksGuard	at OKCvs top-5 defense	30	19.010-30	3.41-6	1.60-4	2.20-4
DeMar DeRozanGuard	vs GSWvs bottom-5 defense	31	18.39-28	2.91-5	4.11-7	0.60-2
Kon KnueppelGuard	vs WAS	31	18.39-28	5.22-9	3.41-6	3.21-6
Jimmy ButlerGuard	at DEN	28	18.09-29	5.02-9	4.42-8	0.70-2
Evan MobleyForward	vs MIN	31	18.09-27	8.85-13	3.51-6	0.90-2
CJ McCollumGuard	at HOUvs top-5 defense	29	18.09-29	3.11-6	3.61-7	2.31-5
Chet HolmgrenCenter	vs PHXvs bottom-5 defense	29	17.69-28	9.15-14	1.90-4	1.40-3
Coby WhiteGuard	vs WAS	25	17.49-28	3.41-6	4.22-7	2.20-4
Ryan RollinsGuard	vs INDvs bottom-5 defense	31	17.18-26	4.52-8	5.53-9	2.30-4
Andrew NembhardGuard	at MILvs bottom-5 defense	31	17.18-26	2.81-5	7.84-12	1.90-4
Amen ThompsonGuard	vs ATL	35	17.08-26	7.14-11	4.92-8	0.30-2
Brice SensabaughForward	vs MEMvs bottom-5 defense	25	16.78-27	3.51-6	2.20-5	2.41-5
Tyler HerroGuard	vs INDvs bottom-5 defense	25	16.78-27	3.91-7	3.31-6	1.90-4
Payton PritchardGuard	vs CHI	32	16.47-25	3.81-7	5.12-9	2.51-5
Grayson AllenGuard	vs WAS	28	16.48-26	3.01-6	3.91-7	3.01-6
Andrew WigginsForward	vs DAL	30	16.28-26	5.12-9	2.91-6	2.00-4
Josh GiddeyGuard	at BOS	31	16.27-25	7.94-12	8.85-13	1.80-4
Kevin Porter Jr.Guard	vs INDvs bottom-5 defense	30	16.07-25	4.82-8	6.83-11	1.00-3
Miles BridgesForward	at OKCvs top-5 defense	30	16.07-25	5.62-9	3.01-6	1.80-4
Alexandre SarrCenter	at CHA	27	16.08-26	7.03-11	2.61-5	1.10-3
Derrick WhiteGuard	vs CHI	33	15.87-25	4.21-7	5.32-9	2.61-5
Naji MarshallForward	at MIA	29	15.77-26	5.02-9	3.31-6	0.80-2
Paul GeorgeForward	vs CHIvs bottom-5 defense	27	15.67-25	4.72-8	3.21-6	2.41-5
Matas BuzelisForward	at BOS	29	15.67-25	5.52-9	1.90-4	2.20-4
Jarrett AllenCenter	vs MIN	27	15.57-25	8.55-13	2.00-4	0.00-1
Jaime Jaquez Jr.Guard	vs INDvs bottom-5 defense	28	15.47-25	5.02-9	4.72-8	0.70-2
Jabari Smith Jr.Forward	vs ATL	34	15.37-24	6.63-10	1.80-4	2.10-4
Jaden McDanielsForward	at CLE	32	15.27-24	4.31-7	2.81-5	1.40-3
Ayo DosunmuGuard	at CLE	28	15.17-25	3.51-7	3.71-7	1.80-4
Airious BaileyForward	vs MEMvs bottom-5 defense	28	15.07-25	4.62-8	2.00-4	2.00-4
Cedric CowardGuard	at UTAvs bottom-5 defense	26	14.87-24	6.43-10	3.11-6	1.60-3
Bobby PortisForward	vs DAL	24	14.67-24	6.83-11	1.70-4	2.10-4
Onyeka OkongwuForward	at HOU	30	14.66-23	7.24-11	2.91-5	1.80-4
Peyton WatsonGuard	vs MIN	29	14.67-24	4.82-8	2.10-4	1.40-3
P.J. WashingtonForward	at MIA	30	14.66-23	7.44-11	1.80-4	1.30-3
Santi AldamaForward	at MIA	27	14.56-24	7.13-11	3.01-6	1.60-3
KyShawn GeorgeForward	at CHA	29	14.46-24	4.82-8	4.22-8	2.00-4
Tim Hardaway Jr.Guard	vs DALvs top-5 defense	26	14.26-24	2.81-5	1.40-3	2.81-5
Kelly Oubre Jr.Forward	at MIL	32	14.16-22	5.02-8	1.60-4	1.70-4
Aaron GordonForward	vs GSWvs top-5 defense	24	14.06-23	5.02-9	2.40-5	1.40-3
Aaron NesmithGuard	at MILvs bottom-5 defense	30	14.06-23	4.21-8	2.00-4	2.41-5
Jalen WilliamsGuard	vs PHXvs top-5 defense	24	14.06-24	3.71-7	4.42-8	0.60-2
GG JacksonForward	at UTA	23	13.96-24	4.82-9	1.70-4	1.20-3
Ivica ZubacCenter	at MILvs top-5 defense	30	13.76-22	10.46-15	2.10-4	0.00-1
Naz ReidForward	vs WASvs bottom-5 defense	26	13.76-23	6.23-10	2.30-5	2.10-4
Ajay MitchellGuard	vs PHXvs top-5 defense	26	13.66-23	3.31-6	3.61-7	1.00-3
Jalen GreenGuard	at OKCvs top-5 defense	21	13.55-23	2.80-6	2.10-4	1.70-4
Tre JonesGuard	at BOS	27	13.56-23	3.01-6	5.22-9	0.60-2
Brandin PodziemskiGuard	at DEN	28	13.56-23	4.92-9	3.61-7	1.80-4
Jaylen WellsForward	at UTA	27	13.46-22	3.41-6	1.80-4	1.90-4
Reed SheppardGuard	vs ATL	26	13.36-22	2.81-6	3.31-6	2.71-5
Jaylon TysonGuard	vs MIN	27	13.36-22	5.12-9	2.20-5	1.90-4
Brandon WilliamsGuard	at DEN	22	13.05-23	2.90-6	3.91-7	0.50-2
Kyle KuzmaForward	vs IND	26	12.95-22	4.52-8	2.61-5	1.10-3
Sam MerrillGuard	vs MIN	26	12.85-22	2.60-5	2.40-5	2.91-5
Max ChristieGuard	at MIA	29	12.85-22	3.41-6	2.10-4	2.41-5
Kyle FilipowskiCenter	vs MEM	24	12.65-21	7.94-12	3.01-6	1.00-2
Klay ThompsonGuard	vs DALvs top-5 defense	22	12.65-22	2.30-5	1.50-3	3.01-5
Isaiah CollierGuard	vs MEM	26	12.55-21	2.71-5	7.84-12	0.50-2
Donte DiVincenzoGuard	at CLE	31	12.35-20	4.11-7	3.91-7	3.01-5
Deandre AytonCenter	at CHA	27	12.25-21	7.54-12	0.80-2	0.00-1
De'Anthony MeltonGuard	at DEN	23	12.24-22	3.21-6	2.51-5	1.40-3
Cam SpencerGuard	at UTAvs bottom-5 defense	25	12.15-21	2.81-5	6.23-10	2.20-4
Pelle LarssonGuard	vs DALvs top-5 defense	26	12.05-21	3.71-7	3.61-7	0.90-2
Tre JohnsonGuard	at CHA	24	12.04-21	2.80-6	2.00-4	1.80-4
Collin GillespieGuard	at OKCvs top-5 defense	28	12.05-21	3.91-7	4.32-8	2.81-5
Moses MoodyGuard	at DEN	26	11.95-21	3.21-6	1.60-4	2.41-5
Jarace WalkerForward	at MIL	26	11.95-20	5.22-9	2.71-5	1.80-4
Cameron JohnsonForward	vs GSWvs top-5 defense	30	11.95-20	3.71-7	2.40-5	1.90-4
Jusuf NurkicCenter	vs MEM	27	11.95-20	11.37-17	5.52-9	0.60-2
Christian BraunGuard	vs GSWvs bottom-5 defense	31	11.84-19	4.72-8	2.71-5	0.90-2
Myles TurnerCenter	vs IND	27	11.85-20	5.22-9	1.50-3	1.90-4
Jonathan KumingaForward	at CLE	21	11.54-21	5.22-9	2.20-4	0.90-2
Bilal CoulibalyGuard	at CHA	26	11.44-20	4.21-8	2.60-5	1.10-3
Nicolas ClaxtonForward	at BOS	27	11.34-20	6.63-11	3.41-6	0.00-1
Dyson DanielsGuard	at HOUvs top-5 defense	32	11.34-19	6.43-10	5.52-9	0.30-2
Kel'el WareCenter	vs IND	22	11.14-20	8.95-14	0.70-2	1.10-3
Mark WilliamsCenter	at OKCvs top-5 defense	24	11.14-20	7.64-12	0.90-2	0.00-1
Dennis SchroderGuard	vs WAS	24	10.94-19	2.70-5	5.12-9	1.00-3
Isaiah StewartForward	at UTA	24	10.93-20	5.52-10	1.30-3	0.70-2
Javon SmallGuard	at UTAvs bottom-5 defense	21	10.83-20	3.51-7	4.22-7	1.60-3
Rudy GobertCenter	at CLE	31	10.84-18	11.67-17	1.70-4	0.00-1
Jock LandaleCenter	at HOU	22	10.73-19	5.62-10	1.80-4	1.10-3
Marvin Bagley IIIForward	vs GSWvs top-5 defense	20	10.53-19	6.13-10	1.50-3	0.40-2
Carlton CarringtonGuard	at CHA	27	10.44-18	3.21-6	4.62-8	1.90-4
Tari EasonForward	vs ATL	26	10.44-18	6.23-10	1.50-3	1.50-3
A.J. GreenGuard	vs INDvs bottom-5 defense	29	10.34-18	2.70-5	1.90-4	2.81-5
Will RileyForward	at CHA	22	10.33-19	2.80-6	1.90-4	1.00-2
Jalen SmithForward	at BOS	21	10.13-19	6.63-11	1.20-3	1.60-3
Zaccharie RisacherForward	at MIA	23	10.13-19	4.11-8	1.20-3	1.40-3
Daniel GaffordForward	at MIA	22	10.13-19	7.43-12	1.10-3	0.00-1
Khris MiddletonForward	at CHA	23	10.13-19	3.51-7	2.71-5	1.10-2
Jay HuffForward	at MIL	22	10.03-19	4.11-8	1.60-4	1.50-3
Neemias QuetaCenter	vs CHI	25	9.93-18	7.94-12	1.60-4	0.00-1
Royce O'NealeForward	vs WASvs bottom-5 defense	28	9.83-18	4.72-8	2.71-5	2.71-5
Davion MitchellGuard	vs DALvs top-5 defense	28	9.83-18	2.81-6	6.93-11	1.30-3
Gui SantosForward	at DENvs bottom-5 defense	21	9.43-18	3.91-7	2.51-5	1.10-3
Sam HauserForward	vs CHIvs bottom-5 defense	25	9.33-17	3.81-7	1.50-3	2.61-5
Isaiah HartensteinForward	vs PHX	25	9.33-17	9.45-14	3.51-7	0.00-1
Aaron WigginsGuard	at HOUvs top-5 defense	22	9.32-17	3.00-6	1.60-4	1.40-3
Cody WilliamsForward	at CLE	25	9.23-17	3.11-6	2.10-5	0.40-2
Marcus SmartGuard	vs ATL	28	9.13-17	2.70-5	2.91-6	1.50-3
Isaac OkoroForward	at BOS	27	9.03-16	2.60-5	1.50-3	1.10-3
Jared McCainGuard	vs PHXvs top-5 defense	19	8.82-17	2.10-5	1.40-3	1.50-3
Quenton JacksonGuard	at MILvs bottom-5 defense	18	8.82-17	2.20-5	2.81-5	0.80-2
Walter Clayton Jr.Guard	at UTAvs bottom-5 defense	22	8.72-17	2.20-5	4.62-8	1.20-3
Cason WallaceGuard	vs PHXvs top-5 defense	27	8.62-16	3.01-6	2.50-5	1.30-3
Devin CarterGuard	vs CHI	18	8.42-16	3.11-6	2.61-5	0.70-2
Jordan GoodwinGuard	at OKCvs top-5 defense	23	8.42-16	4.72-9	2.00-4	1.60-3
Draymond GreenForward	at DENvs bottom-5 defense	27	8.32-15	5.42-9	5.73-10	1.40-3
Nikola JovicForward	vs DAL	18	8.32-16	3.71-7	2.51-5	1.00-2
Taylor HendricksForward	at UTA	20	8.32-16	4.21-8	1.10-3	1.10-3
Al HorfordCenter	at DEN	22	8.22-16	4.82-9	2.30-5	1.60-3
Luke KennardGuard	at OKCvs top-5 defense	22	8.12-16	2.30-5	2.10-4	1.50-3
Luguentz DortGuard	at HOUvs top-5 defense	27	8.12-15	3.41-6	1.20-3	1.70-4
Moussa DiabateForward	vs WASvs bottom-5 defense	26	7.92-15	8.75-13	2.00-4	0.00-1
Buddy HieldGuard	at BOS	17	7.82-15	2.30-5	1.40-3	1.50-3
Gary Trent Jr.Guard	vs INDvs bottom-5 defense	20	7.71-15	1.00-3	1.10-3	1.70-3
Jamir WatkinsForward	at CHA	21	7.51-15	3.91-7	1.30-3	1.00-2
Jaylin WilliamsForward	vs PHX	21	7.51-15	5.62-10	2.51-5	1.50-3
Ben SheppardGuard	at MILvs bottom-5 defense	22	7.41-15	3.21-6	1.90-4	1.40-3
Svi MykhailiukGuard	vs MEM	17	7.21-14	1.90-4	1.40-3	1.50-3
Nah'Shon HylandGuard	at CLE	14	7.02-16	1.50-4	2.21-4	1.30-3
Kenrich WilliamsGuard	vs PHXvs top-5 defense	17	7.01-14	3.51-7	1.50-3	0.90-2
Patrick WilliamsForward	at BOS	21	6.91-14	2.90-6	1.40-3	1.30-3
Alex CarusoGuard	vs PHXvs top-5 defense	19	6.51-13	2.80-6	2.00-4	1.00-2
Kris MurrayForward	at UTA	24	6.31-13	3.91-7	1.60-4	0.60-2
Oso IghodaroForward	at OKCvs top-5 defense	22	6.21-13	5.02-9	2.20-4	0.00-1
Justin ChampagnieForward	at CHA	14	5.91-14	3.71-8	0.80-2	0.50-2
Mitchell RobinsonCenter	vs CHI	20	5.60-12	8.54-14	0.80-2	0.00-1
Baylor ScheiermanGuard	vs CHI	19	5.60-12	3.51-7	1.60-4	1.20-3
Leonard MillerForward	at BOS	11	5.61-13	2.80-6	0.60-2	0.50-2
Spencer JonesForward	vs GSWvs top-5 defense	23	5.60-12	3.31-6	0.80-2	0.90-2
Jordan WalshGuard	vs CHI	18	5.40-12	4.01-8	0.80-2	0.70-2
Olivier-Maxence ProsperForward	at UTA	9	5.11-12	1.80-5	0.50-2	0.60-2
Sion JamesGuard	vs WAS	20	4.90-11	3.21-6	1.90-4	0.90-2
Nae'Qwan TomlinForward	vs MIN	13	4.80-12	2.40-6	0.70-2	0.30-1
Craig PorterGuard	vs MIN	18	4.70-11	3.61-7	3.31-6	0.50-2
Steven AdamsCenter	vs ATL	18	4.60-10	6.83-11	1.20-3	0.00-1
Moussa CisseCenter	at MIA	14	4.60-12	6.03-11	0.20-2	0.00-1
Simone FontecchioForward	vs DAL	8	4.60-11	1.60-4	0.80-2	0.90-2
Mike ConleyGuard	vs CHI	19	4.60-10	1.70-4	3.01-6	1.00-2
Caleb MartinForward	at MIA	16	4.30-11	2.80-6	1.50-3	0.40-1
Will RichardGuard	at DEN	12	4.00-10	1.50-4	0.80-2	0.60-2
Corey KispertForward	at HOU	8	3.90-10	1.00-3	0.70-2	0.60-2
Dwight PowellForward	at MIA	15	3.80-10	4.72-9	1.20-3	0.00-1
Ryan NembhardGuard	vs GSWvs bottom-5 defense	10	3.60-10	1.20-3	2.81-5	0.40-2
Luka GarzaCenter	vs CHI	6	3.00-8	1.50-4	0.30-2	0.30-1
Ryan DunnForward	at OKCvs top-5 defense	8	2.40-7	1.80-5	0.60-2	0.30-1
Jett HowardGuard	at MIA	5	2.10-7	0.60-3	0.30-2	0.40-1
Obi ToppinForward	at MIL	3	1.90-6	0.70-3	0.40-2	0.30-1
Brooks BarnhizerForward	vs PHX	10	1.90-6	2.20-5	0.60-2	0.20-1
T.J. McConnellGuard	at MILvs bottom-5 defense	3	1.60-6	0.40-2	0.90-2	0.00-1
Joan BeringerForward	at CLE	3	1.50-5	0.90-3	0.10-2	0.00-1
Kristaps PorzingisForward	at DENvs bottom-5 defense	2	1.50-5	0.50-3	0.20-2	0.10-1
Tristan VukcevicForward	at CHA	2	1.40-5	0.50-3	0.20-2	0.20-1
Quinten PostCenter	at UTA	3	1.40-5	0.70-3	0.30-2	0.30-1
Anthony DavisForward	at CHA	2	1.40-5	0.70-3	0.20-2	0.00-1
Terrence Shannon Jr.Guard	at CLE	3	1.30-5	0.30-2	0.20-2	0.20-1
Jaxson HayesCenter	vs MEM	3	1.30-5	0.70-3	0.20-2	0.00-1
Drew TimmeForward	at CLE	3	1.20-5	0.40-2	0.30-2	0.10-1
Cam WhitmoreForward	vs GSWvs top-5 defense	2	1.10-5	0.30-2	0.10-2	0.10-1
Keshad JohnsonForward	vs DAL	2	1.10-4	0.50-3	0.10-2	0.10-1
Thomas BryantCenter	vs MIN	2	1.10-4	0.60-3	0.10-2	0.10-1
Kobe BrownForward	at MIL	3	1.10-4	0.60-3	0.30-2	0.20-1
Tyrese ProctorGuard	vs MIN	2	1.10-4	0.20-2	0.30-2	0.20-1
Julian StrawtherGuard	vs GSWvs bottom-5 defense	2	1.00-4	0.30-2	0.20-2	0.10-1
Gary Payton IIGuard	at DEN	2	1.00-4	0.50-3	0.20-2	0.10-1
Oscar TshiebweForward	vs ATL	2	1.00-4	0.80-3	0.20-2	0.00-1
Marcus SasserGuard	at MIA	2	1.00-4	0.20-2	0.40-2	0.20-1
Clint CapelaCenter	vs ATL	3	1.00-4	1.20-3	0.20-2	0.00-1
Asa NewellForward	at HOU	2	1.00-4	0.40-2	0.10-2	0.10-1
DaRon Holmes IIForward	vs GSWvs top-5 defense	2	0.90-4	0.30-2	0.20-2	0.20-1
Jaylen ClarkGuard	at CLE	3	0.90-4	0.40-2	0.10-2	0.10-1
Tre MannGuard	at CHA	2	0.90-4	0.30-2	0.30-2	0.10-1
Nick RichardsCenter	vs DALvs bottom-5 defense	2	0.90-4	0.80-3	0.10-2	0.00-1
Micah PeavyGuard	at UTAvs bottom-5 defense	3	0.90-4	0.40-2	0.20-2	0.10-1
Jahmai MashackGuard	at UTAvs bottom-5 defense	3	0.90-4	0.40-2	0.30-2	0.10-1
Myron GardnerForward	vs DAL	2	0.90-4	0.70-3	0.20-2	0.10-1
Larry Nance Jr.Forward	at MIL	3	0.90-4	0.60-3	0.20-2	0.10-1
Josh GreenGuard	vs MEM	3	0.80-4	0.30-2	0.20-2	0.20-1
Jamaree BouyeaGuard	at OKCvs top-5 defense	2	0.80-4	0.30-2	0.30-2	0.10-1
Jalen WilsonForward	at HOU	2	0.80-4	0.30-2	0.10-2	0.10-1
Johnny FurphyGuard	at MILvs bottom-5 defense	3	0.80-4	0.70-3	0.20-2	0.10-1
Ousmane DiengForward	vs IND	2	0.80-4	0.30-2	0.30-2	0.10-1
Ron Harper Jr.Forward	vs CHIvs bottom-5 defense	2	0.80-4	0.30-2	0.10-2	0.20-1
Tidjane SalaunForward	vs WASvs bottom-5 defense	2	0.80-4	0.50-3	0.10-2	0.10-1
Caris LeVertGuard	vs INDvs bottom-5 defense	2	0.80-4	0.20-2	0.30-2	0.10-1
Pat SpencerGuard	at OKCvs top-5 defense	2	0.80-4	0.30-2	0.40-2	0.10-1
Josh OkogieGuard	vs MEM	3	0.80-4	0.50-3	0.20-2	0.10-1
Pat ConnaughtonGuard	vs WAS	2	0.80-4	0.40-3	0.10-2	0.10-1
Bogdan BogdanovicGuard	vs ATL	2	0.80-4	0.30-2	0.20-2	0.10-1
Jordan HawkinsGuard	at BOS	2	0.80-4	0.30-2	0.10-2	0.10-1
Dru SmithGuard	vs DALvs top-5 defense	2	0.80-4	0.30-2	0.40-2	0.10-1
Liam McNeeleyForward	vs WASvs bottom-5 defense	2	0.80-4	0.40-2	0.10-2	0.10-1
Ryan KalkbrennerCenter	vs WASvs bottom-5 defense	2	0.80-4	0.50-3	0.10-2	0.00-1
Grant WilliamsForward	vs WASvs bottom-5 defense	2	0.80-4	0.40-2	0.20-2	0.20-1
Duop ReathCenter	at OKCvs top-5 defense	2	0.70-4	0.30-2	0.10-2	0.20-1
Kasparas JakučionisGuard	vs INDvs bottom-5 defense	2	0.70-4	0.30-2	0.30-2	0.10-1
Pete NanceForward	vs IND	2	0.70-4	0.40-2	0.10-2	0.10-1
Rasheer FlemingForward	at OKCvs top-5 defense	2	0.70-4	0.40-2	0.00-2	0.10-1
Anthony GillForward	at CHA	2	0.70-4	0.30-2	0.10-2	0.00-1
Khaman MaluachCenter	at OKCvs top-5 defense	2	0.70-4	0.70-3	0.00-2	0.00-1
Dalen TerryForward	at DENvs bottom-5 defense	2	0.70-4	0.30-2	0.30-2	0.10-1
Julian PhillipsForward	vs ATL	2	0.70-4	0.20-2	0.00-2	0.10-1
Jae'Sean TateForward	vs ATL	2	0.70-4	0.40-2	0.10-2	0.10-1
Malevy LeonsForward	at DENvs bottom-5 defense	2	0.60-4	0.40-2	0.20-2	0.00-1
Zeke NnajiForward	vs GSWvs top-5 defense	2	0.60-4	0.40-3	0.10-2	0.00-1
Mouhamed GueyeForward	at HOU	2	0.60-4	0.50-3	0.10-2	0.10-1
Kam JonesGuard	vs INDvs bottom-5 defense	2	0.60-4	0.20-2	0.40-2	0.10-1
Hugo GonzálezGuard	vs CHI	2	0.60-4	0.50-3	0.10-2	0.10-1
Jericho SimsForward	vs IND	2	0.50-4	0.60-3	0.20-2	0.00-1
Amari WilliamsForward	vs CHIvs bottom-5 defense	2	0.40-4	0.60-3	0.10-2	0.00-1
Tyus JonesGuard	vs GSWvs bottom-5 defense	2	0.40-4	0.20-2	0.30-2	0.10-1
Dorian Finney-SmithForward	at HOU	2	0.40-4	0.30-2	0.10-2	0.10-1

Small numbers under each projection are the 80% range. Defense chips rank the opponent on points allowed per 100 possessions to his position group: bottom-5 means one of the five most generous. 238 players shown.

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Projection 30.4 (80% range 18-43). Type the line from your sportsbook to see the over and under chances.

One game is noisy: even a good projection misses by several points most nights. Add it to a parlay.

02Track record

2025-26 backtest

No projected games are final yet. Here is how the model did replaying 2025-26.

2025-26 backtest: average miss per player game

Stat	This model	Season average	Last 10 average	Gain vs season avg	Inside 80% range
Points	4.58	4.69	4.66	2.2%	80%
Rebounds	1.88	1.91	1.93	1.6%	81%
Assists	1.35	1.37	1.37	1.3%	80%
Threes made	0.89	0.90	0.91	1.1%	80%
Minutes	5.03	5.43	5.12	7.4%	n/a

Lower is better. Season and last-10 averages are the simple guesses the model has to beat.

How this works

The method

Two steps. First we project minutes from a player's minutes per game this season, over his last 10 games and over his last 5 (the last 5 count the most), plus home court and the second night of a back-to-back. Then each stat is his per-minute rate (season, last 10 and last 5) times those minutes, adjusted for the opponent and the pace.

The opponent adjustment compares how many points, rebounds, assists and threes the opponent allows per 100 possessions to his position group (guards, forwards or centers) with the league. Early in a season it leans on last season's number. An opponent that allows 10% more points to his position adds about 2.1% to his points. A game 3% faster than average adds about 5.5%.

The weights were fit by least squares on 24,874 player games from 2025-26. The 80% ranges come from how far real results landed from the projection in testing, grouped by projected minutes.

How we tested it

We replayed 2025-26 from Mon, Dec 1 to Sun, Apr 12, refitting on the first of each month using only earlier games, and projected 19,968 player games. The average miss on points was 4.58, against 4.69 for his season average and 4.66 for his last-10 average. The gain is small, but it held for every stat, and 80% of real point totals landed inside the 80% range.

A gradient boosting model on the same inputs missed by 4.65 points, so we kept the simpler model. It runs inside our database every morning.

What it cannot see

Injuries, rest days, who starts and trades after the morning update. It projects every active player as if he plays, and it is graded only on players who did. Minutes are the biggest source of error: had we known each player's real minutes, the average miss on points would have been 3.74 instead of 4.58. Blowouts cut starters' minutes and are not predicted.

Until a player has 5 games in a season, his projection uses last season's per-minute numbers and his expected minutes on his current roster (last season's minutes handed out down the depth chart). That early-season mode could not be tested, because our data starts in 2025-26. Rookies without NBA games get no projection, and neither do players with fewer than 20 games last season (a few games is too small a sample) until they play this season (Decision #87).

Updated every morning for the next seven days of games. Once a game tips off its projections are frozen, and those frozen numbers are what we grade.