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Game plans · Saturday, January 2

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Heat at Mavericks

How the Heat beat the Mavericks

  1. AttackAttack the paint21.9% of Heat shots come in the paint (5th most), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

How the Mavericks beat the Heat

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneMIA offenseDAL defenseDAL offenseMIA defense
At the rim65.1% (20th)66.2% (16th)64.6% (24th)65.3% (11th)
Paint44.2% (17th)45.5% (24th)45.4% (11th)44.8% (20th)
Midrange37.8% (26th)42.7% (23rd)39.4% (24th)39.5% (4th)
Corner 337.6% (19th)37.2% (6th)37.1% (25th)39.0% (18th)
Above-the-break 335.6% (9th)34.2% (9th)33.2% (28th)34.7% (16th)

Matchups on Sat, Jan 2

10 games
  • Cavaliers at Hornets1:00 PM ET

    How the Cavaliers beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Cavaliers defense there ranks 25th (36.1% allowed).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Cavaliers play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Hornets beat the Cavaliers

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Hornets shoot 42.8% from the corners (3rd), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Knicks at Nuggets5:00 PM ET

    How the Knicks beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).

    How the Nuggets beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Nuggets defense there ranks 4th (36.5% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Timberwolves at Pacers7:00 PM ET

    How the Timberwolves beat the Pacers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.

    How the Pacers beat the Timberwolves

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Heat at Pelicans7:00 PM ET

    How the Heat beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. AttackAttack the paint21.9% of Heat shots come in the paint (5th most), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).

    How the Pelicans beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Pelicans play at 99.5 possessions per 48 minutes (11th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at Hawks7:30 PM ET

    How the Mavericks beat the Hawks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    How the Hawks beat the Mavericks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Lakers at Bulls8:00 PM ET

    How the Lakers beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Lakers shoot 36.3% from above the break (6th), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Lakers shoot 44.4% from midrange (5th), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).

    How the Bulls beat the Lakers

    1. AttackAttack the rim36.1% of Bulls shots come at the rim (2nd most), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Jazz at Thunder8:00 PM ET

    How the Jazz beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd) and the Jazz give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).

    How the Thunder beat the Jazz

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Thunder shoot 48.1% from midrange (1st), and the Jazz allow 44.1% there (28th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nets at Warriors8:30 PM ET

    How the Nets beat the Warriors

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Warriors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    How the Warriors beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Kings at Suns9:00 PM ET

    How the Kings beat the Suns

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Kings shoot 68.2% at the rim (6th), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).

    How the Suns beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.9% of Suns shots come from above the break (4th most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrange11.7% of Suns shots come from midrange (6th most), and the Kings allow 43.7% there (27th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at Trail Blazers10:00 PM ET

    How the Celtics beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Trail Blazers at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th), and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Celtics

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Trail Blazers play at 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes (9th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Trail Blazers defense there ranks 14th (34.5% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.