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Game plans

Friday, March 27

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Mavericks at Bucks

How the Mavericks beat the Bucks

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
  2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Mavericks defense there ranks 6th (37.2% allowed).
  3. TempoPush the paceThe Mavericks play at 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes (4th in pace), the Bucks at 96.8 (23rd). Run and make them keep up.

How the Bucks beat the Mavericks

  1. AttackAttack midrange12.6% of Bucks shots come from midrange (3rd most), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).
  2. TempoSlow it downThe Bucks play at 96.8 possessions per 48 minutes (23rd in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneDAL offenseMIL defenseMIL offenseDAL defense
At the rim64.6% (24th)68.5% (25th)68.7% (5th)66.2% (16th)
Paint45.4% (11th)41.1% (3rd)42.7% (23rd)45.5% (24th)
Midrange39.4% (24th)42.0% (15th)42.3% (12th)42.7% (23rd)
Corner 337.1% (25th)41.1% (29th)42.9% (2nd)37.2% (6th)
Above-the-break 333.2% (28th)36.4% (26th)36.9% (2nd)34.2% (9th)

02Matchups on Fri, Mar 27

10 games
  • Clippers at PacersFinal

    How the Clippers beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack the paint21.5% of Clippers shots come in the paint (6th most), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.

    How the Pacers beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Pacers play at 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes (8th in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hawks at CelticsFinal

    How the Hawks beat the Celtics

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Hawks play at 100.7 possessions per 48 minutes (7th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Hawks shoot 36.4% from above the break (4th), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).

    How the Celtics beat the Hawks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Heat at CavaliersFinal

    How the Heat beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Heat shoot 35.6% from above the break (9th), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).

    How the Cavaliers beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Cavaliers play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Rockets at GrizzliesFinal

    How the Rockets beat the Grizzlies

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st), and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Grizzlies at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Grizzlies beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st) and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at ThunderFinal

    How the Bulls beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 312.0% of Bulls shots come from the corners (6th most), and the Thunder allow 39.9% there (24th of 30).

    How the Thunder beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Thunder shoot 48.1% from midrange (1st), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Thunder shoot 35.9% from above the break (8th), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pelicans at RaptorsFinal

    How the Pelicans beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Pelicans defense there ranks 18th (66.7% allowed).

    How the Raptors beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Jazz at NuggetsFinal

    How the Jazz beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Nuggets allow 45.3% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Jazz

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Nuggets shoot 48.4% in the paint (2nd), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Wizards at WarriorsFinal

    How the Wizards beat the Warriors

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Warriors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).

    How the Warriors beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at Trail BlazersFinal

    How the Mavericks beat the Trail Blazers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Mavericks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nets at LakersFinal

    How the Nets beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint21.5% of Lakers shots come in the paint (7th most) and they make 48.8% (1st). The Nets defense there ranks 25th (46.6% allowed).

    How the Lakers beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Nets allow 46.6% there (25th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Lakers shoot 36.3% from above the break (6th), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.