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Game plans

Thursday, March 19

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Hawks at Celtics

How the Hawks beat the Celtics

  1. TempoPush the paceThe Hawks play at 100.7 possessions per 48 minutes (7th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
  2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Hawks shoot 36.4% from above the break (4th), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
  3. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Hawks defense there ranks 15th (34.6% allowed).
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Jayson TatumTatum (21.8 points per game): best from above the break (31% on 131 shots, league 35%), worst at the rim (62%, league 66%).

How the Celtics beat the Hawks

  1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneATL offenseBOS defenseBOS offenseATL defense
At the rim64.9% (21st)64.8% (7th)70.5% (2nd)65.2% (10th)
Paint45.0% (14th)41.4% (4th)48.2% (3rd)44.2% (18th)
Midrange42.3% (13th)42.5% (21st)39.9% (21st)42.0% (17th)
Corner 338.9% (11th)36.2% (2nd)41.8% (4th)38.1% (10th)
Above-the-break 336.4% (4th)35.7% (24th)35.6% (10th)34.6% (15th)

02Matchups on Thu, Mar 19

8 games
  • Magic at HornetsFinal

    How the Magic beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Magic defense there ranks 7th (34.2% allowed).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Magic play at 99.3 possessions per 48 minutes (12th in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Hornets beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Hornets play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Magic at 99.3 (12th). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pistons at WizardsFinal

    How the Pistons beat the Wizards

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd), and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
    2. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st), and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).

    How the Wizards beat the Pistons

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd) and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
    2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st) and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Lakers at HeatFinal

    How the Lakers beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Lakers play at 97.6 possessions per 48 minutes (21st in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Heat beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint21.5% of Lakers shots come in the paint (7th most) and they make 48.8% (1st). The Heat defense there ranks 20th (44.8% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Cavaliers at BullsFinal

    How the Cavaliers beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.3% of Cavaliers shots come from above the break (7th most), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Cavaliers shoot 44.5% from midrange (4th), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).

    How the Bulls beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the corner 312.0% of Bulls shots come from the corners (6th most), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Clippers at PelicansFinal

    How the Clippers beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. AttackAttack the paint21.5% of Clippers shots come in the paint (6th most), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).

    How the Pelicans beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Pelicans play at 99.5 possessions per 48 minutes (11th in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Suns at SpursFinal

    How the Suns beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrange11.7% of Suns shots come from midrange (6th most), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Spurs beat the Suns

    1. AttackAttack the rim32.3% of Spurs shots come at the rim (7th most), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Spurs play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bucks at JazzFinal

    How the Bucks beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Bucks shoot 68.7% at the rim (5th), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).

    How the Jazz beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Jazz defense there ranks 21st (39.2% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • 76ers at KingsFinal

    How the 76ers beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the rim33.4% of 76ers shots come at the rim (5th most), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The 76ers defense there ranks 5th (42.4% allowed).

    How the Kings beat the 76ers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.