Last season (2025-26)
Players whose game really moved: more minutes, a bigger role, a new shot diet. Each change comes with the likely reason and how much of it should hold.
The 2026-27 season does not have enough games yet, so this shows 2025-26: each player's last 25 games (or his games since a role change or a trade) against the rest of his season. Once players have about 20 games this season, the page switches to this season by itself.
Rupert's playing time is up 18.9 minutes a game over his 16 games with MEM (30.9 vs 12.0). Much of it is the starting role change: he started 8 of 16 games, up from 0 of 48, after his move to MEM. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Clifford's playing time is up 14.8 minutes a game over his 33 games since Jan 25 (33.4 vs 18.6). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Keegan Murray (36 MPG before) played only 4 of 36 games, plus 4 more key players out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Peter's playing time is up 16.0 minutes a game over his 17 games since Jan 17 (21.8 vs 5.8). Much of it is a teammate's absence: Bennedict Mathurin (32 MPG before) left the team. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Scheierman's playing time is up 12.6 minutes a game over his 42 games since Jan 17 (24.3 vs 11.7). Much of it is the starting role change: he started 19 of 42 games, up from 1 of 35. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Carter's playing time is up 14.7 minutes a game over his 22 games since Feb 6 (24.6 vs 9.9). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Keegan Murray (36 MPG before) played only 4 of 30 games, plus 4 more key players out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Jenkins's playing time is up 14.7 minutes a game over his 14 games since Mar 19 (32.0 vs 17.3). Most of it is the starting role change: he started 11 of 14 games, up from 8 of 58, with Cade Cunningham out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Dillingham's playing time is up 12.1 minutes a game over his 30 games with CHI (21.4 vs 9.3). The likely reason: he moved from MIN to CHI (first game Feb 7). Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Alexander-Walker's TS% is up 10.1 points over his last 25 games of the season (68.1% vs 58.0%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 7.9 points above what his shot spots predict (1.6 points below before), with Trae Young gone. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Konchar's playing time is up 11.6 minutes a game over his 26 games with UTA (26.2 vs 14.6). The likely reason: he moved from MEM to UTA (first game Feb 7). Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Spencer's playing time is up 10.6 minutes a game over his 32 games since Feb 3 (24.0 vs 13.4). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Jimmy Butler (31 MPG before) missed all 32 games, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Jones's playing time is up 12.7 minutes a game over his 22 games since Feb 8 (21.7 vs 9.1). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Bennedict Mathurin (32 MPG before) left the team, plus 2 more key players out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Harper's TS% is up 11.0 points over his last 25 games of the season (64.4% vs 53.4%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 6.3 points above what his shot spots predict (6.0 points below before). Partly real: about 60% should hold.
Watson's usage is up 10.6 points over his 24 games since Dec 31 (26.5% vs 15.9%). The likely reason: Aaron Gordon (28 MPG before) played only 20 of 45 games. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Watson's scoring is up 8.7 points a game over his 24 games since Dec 31 (19.5 vs 10.7). Most of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 11.6 to 18.5, with Aaron Gordon out. Also playing time: his minutes went from 27.2 to 32.5 a game. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Agbaji's above-the-break 3 share is up 20 points over his 20 games with BKN (37% vs 17%). The likely reason: he moved from TOR to BKN (first game Feb 11). Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Rupert's scoring is up 9.3 points a game over his 16 games with MEM (12.2 vs 2.9). Much of it is playing time: his minutes went from 12.0 to 30.9 a game, after his move to MEM. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Agbaji's 3-point rate is up 19 points over his 20 games with BKN (57% vs 38%). The likely reason: he moved from TOR to BKN (first game Feb 11). Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Clifford's scoring is up 7.6 points a game over his 33 games since Jan 25 (12.8 vs 5.3). Much of it is playing time: his minutes went from 18.6 to 33.4 a game, with Keegan Murray out. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Carter's scoring is up 9.0 points a game over his 22 games since Feb 6 (12.7 vs 3.7). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 9.9 to 24.6 a game, with Keegan Murray out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Small's playing time is up 11.1 minutes a game over his 24 games since Feb 6 (25.2 vs 14.1). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Jaren Jackson Jr. (31 MPG before) left the team, plus 4 more key players out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Payton II's scoring is up 7.4 points a game over his 27 games since Feb 5 (12.2 vs 4.7). The likely reason: Jimmy Butler (31 MPG before) missed all 31 games, plus 1 more key player out. Also playing time: his minutes went from 12.6 to 20.9 a game. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Thompson's TS% is up 8.3 points over his last 25 games of the season (65.0% vs 56.7%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 3.3 points above what his shot spots predict (4.0 points below before). Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Moody's TS% is up 9.8 points over his last 25 games of the season (65.4% vs 55.6%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 8.3 points above what his shot spots predict (2.0 points below before), with Jimmy Butler out. Partly real: about 60% should hold.
Saraf's playing time is up 10.5 minutes a game over his 15 games since Mar 12 (27.7 vs 17.3). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Michael Porter Jr. (32 MPG before) missed all 17 games, plus 2 more key players out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Dick's usage is up 10.0 points over his 18 games since Mar 3 (27.4% vs 17.4%). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Collier's scoring is up 7.4 points a game over his 24 games since Jan 20 (16.0 vs 8.7). Most of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 11.7 to 17.5, with Walker Kessler out. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Carter's playing time is up 9.3 minutes a game over his 30 games with ORL (20.4 vs 11.1). The likely reason: he moved from CHI to ORL (first game Feb 9). Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Small's scoring is up 8.3 points a game over his 24 games since Feb 6 (13.2 vs 4.9). Much of it is shooting efficiency: his TS% went from 45.7% to 66.7%, with Jaren Jackson Jr. gone. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Jenkins's scoring is up 8.4 points a game over his 14 games since Mar 19 (16.1 vs 7.7). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 17.3 to 32.0 a game, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Jackson Jr.'s playing time is up 11.2 minutes a game over his 11 games since Mar 23 (17.2 vs 6.0). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Kevin Porter Jr. (33 MPG before) missed all 12 games, plus 4 more key players out. Partly real: about 60% should hold.
Traoré's usage is up 8.5 points over his 31 games since Feb 1 (26.3% vs 17.7%). The likely reason: he started 29 of 31 games, up from 2 of 25. Also a teammate's absence: Michael Porter Jr. (33 MPG before) played only 14 of 34 games. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Payton II's playing time is up 8.4 minutes a game over his 27 games since Feb 5 (20.9 vs 12.6). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Jimmy Butler (31 MPG before) missed all 31 games, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Hyland's playing time is up 10.5 minutes a game over his 12 games since Mar 17 (25.6 vs 15.0). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Anthony Edwards (35 MPG before) played only 2 of 12 games, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Peavy's playing time is up 12.0 minutes a game over his 8 games since Mar 27 (25.4 vs 13.4). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Trey Murphy III (35 MPG before) played only 2 of 8 games, plus 1 more key player out. Partly real: about half should hold.
Daniels's TS% is up 7.9 points over his last 25 games of the season (59.6% vs 51.7%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 0.7 points above what his shot spots predict (6.0 points below before), with Trae Young gone. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Larsson's playing time is up 7.8 minutes a game over his 40 games since Jan 11 (29.8 vs 22.0). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Trent Jr.'s usage is up 8.6 points over his 19 games since Feb 12 (24.2% vs 15.6%). The likely reason: Giannis Antetokounmpo (29 MPG before) played only 6 of 28 games, plus 1 more key player out. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Saraf's rim share is up 18 points over his 15 games since Mar 12 (54% vs 36%). The likely reason: Michael Porter Jr. (32 MPG before) missed all 17 games, plus 2 more key players out. Also a new teammate: Malachi Smith joined the rotation on Mar 14 and played 23.9 MPG. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Dillingham's 3-point rate is up 14 points over his 30 games with CHI (37% vs 23%). The likely reason: he moved from MIN to CHI (first game Feb 7). Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Strawther's playing time is up 8.0 minutes a game over his 33 games since Jan 29 (18.4 vs 10.5). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Peyton Watson (30 MPG before) played only 10 of 35 games, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Dillingham's scoring is up 6.1 points a game over his 30 games with CHI (9.6 vs 3.5). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 9.3 to 21.4 a game, after his move to CHI. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Hardy's playing time is up 7.9 minutes a game over his 23 games with WAS (20.5 vs 12.6). The likely reason: he moved from DAL to WAS (first game Feb 11). Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Saraf's scoring is up 7.1 points a game over his 15 games since Mar 12 (12.2 vs 5.1). The likely reason: Michael Porter Jr. (32 MPG before) missed all 17 games, plus 2 more key players out. Also playing time: his minutes went from 17.3 to 27.7 a game. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
McCain's TS% is up 8.7 points over his 30 games with OKC (59.3% vs 50.6%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 3.5 points above what his shot spots predict (5.6 points below before), after his move to OKC. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Hyland's scoring is up 7.6 points a game over his 12 games since Mar 17 (14.9 vs 7.3). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 15.0 to 25.6 a game, with Anthony Edwards out. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Ellis's playing time is up 7.3 minutes a game over his 29 games with CLE (24.9 vs 17.5). The likely reason: he moved from SAC to CLE (first game Feb 4). Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Jones's scoring is up 6.1 points a game over his 23 games since Feb 26 (18.0 vs 11.9). Most of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 12.8 to 18.0, with Nikola Vucevic gone. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Cissoko's rim share is up 15 points over his 25 games since Feb 20 (40% vs 25%). The likely reason: Shaedon Sharpe (30 MPG before) played only 2 of 26 games. Also the starting role change: he started 2 of 25 games, down from 24 of 50. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Williams's TS% is up 7.3 points over his last 25 games of the season (61.8% vs 54.5%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 1.1 points below what his shot spots predict (7.1 points below before), with Anthony Davis out. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Payton II's TS% is up 8.8 points over his 27 games since Feb 5 (67.0% vs 58.2%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 7.1 points above what his shot spots predict (2.4 points below before), with Jimmy Butler out. Partly real: about half should hold.
Watson's midrange share is up 14 points over his 24 games since Dec 31 (16% vs 2%). The likely reason: Aaron Gordon (28 MPG before) played only 20 of 45 games. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Furphy's playing time is up 8.4 minutes a game over his 17 games since Jan 6 (22.6 vs 14.2). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Bennedict Mathurin (32 MPG before) left the team, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Giddey's 3-point rate is up 16 points over his 14 games since Mar 3 (51% vs 36%). The likely reason: Nikola Vucevic (31 MPG before) left the team, plus 3 more key players out. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Peter's scoring is up 6.5 points a game over his 17 games since Jan 17 (8.1 vs 1.6). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 5.8 to 21.8 a game, with Bennedict Mathurin gone. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Mann's midrange share is up 14 points over his 31 games since Dec 29 (21% vs 8%). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Podziemski's scoring is up 5.4 points a game over his 30 games since Feb 7 (17.3 vs 11.8). The likely reason: Jimmy Butler (31 MPG before) missed all 30 games, plus 1 more key player out. Also shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 14.0 to 16.4. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Walter's playing time is up 9.5 minutes a game over his 10 games since Mar 27 (28.6 vs 19.1). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Immanuel Quickley (33 MPG before) played only 3 of 10 games, after he moved into the starting five. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Spencer's above-the-break 3 share is up 12 points over his 32 games since Feb 3 (35% vs 23%). The likely reason: Jimmy Butler (31 MPG before) missed all 32 games, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: Kristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.7 MPG. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
James's above-the-break 3 share is up 12 points over his 43 games since Jan 12 (45% vs 33%). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Shannon Jr.'s scoring is up 7.8 points a game over his 9 games since Mar 28 (11.8 vs 4.0). The likely reason: Jaden McDaniels (32 MPG before) played only 2 of 9 games, plus 1 more key player out. Also shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 11.9 to 17.7. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Every night we split each player's regular season (8+ games on each side) in one of three ways, in this order: the day he joined a new team; the game after which his minutes and usage shifted the most (a simple two-part split); or, if neither moved much, his last 10 games. Until the new season has enough games (about 20 each for most players) we use last season and its last 25 games, which catches the roles that changed at the trade deadline.
A change counts as big when it reaches:
Players need 15+ minutes a game on one side. Shooting needs 40+ threes or 60+ shots on each side.
Both windows are pulled toward the player's whole season by a fixed amount of weight M, the sample size where a stat is half skill and half luck: (window x n + season x M) / (n + M). A change is shown only if the pulled gap keeps at least half of the raw gap: Probably real keeps 60% or more, Partly real keeps 50 to 59%, anything less is Mostly noise and stays off the feed.
M values: 3P% 501 threes, TS% 218 shots and points 9.7 games, from Is it real?; minutes 9.4, usage 17, assists 18.9, rebounds 18.1, 3-point rate 13.9, rim share 18.2, midrange 16.8, corner 3 21.6 and above the break 15.4 games, measured on 1,766 pairs of back-to-back 10-game stretches in 2025-26. That is why 3P% changes almost never make it: threes are mostly luck until a player has taken hundreds.
Rules, each with a number. Points split exactly into minutes, shot volume and efficiency. Assists and rebounds split into minutes and per-minute rate. TS% and 3P% split into shot diet (league FG% from the spots he shot from) and shot-making (the rest). Context: a new team, a move into or out of the starting five (starting lineups from our stint data), key teammates (25+ minutes before) who missed most of the window, a new rotation player (20+ minutes), and opponents' defensive rating. We keep causes that explain 15%+ of the change and show the top three.
Backtest on 2025-26: we ran this as if the season stopped on 3 dates and checked each flag against the rest of the season. Probably real changes kept 71% of their size on average (we predicted 66%) and 88% kept going the same way (301 flags). Partly real kept 60% (predicted 55%). Mostly noise kept 39% (predicted 33%), so the pull is a little cautious, which is the safe side.
Latest run: 393 players checked, 447 probably real and 180 partly real changes, and 273 big swings left out as mostly noise.
Injuries a player played through, coaching decisions, matchups and schemes, and anything off the box score. Missing teammates are read from who played, not the injury report. Causes are rough splits, not proof; when nothing in our data fits we say so.
