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Game plans · Sunday, January 18

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Wizards at Clippers

How the Wizards beat the Clippers

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
  2. TempoPush the paceThe Wizards play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.

How the Clippers beat the Wizards

  1. AttackAttack the rimThe Clippers shoot 69.4% at the rim (3rd), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Clippers shoot 41.6% from the corners (5th), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).
  3. TempoSlow it downThe Clippers play at 95.6 possessions per 48 minutes (28th in pace), the Wizards at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.
  4. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Clippers defense there ranks 3rd (39.4% allowed).
  5. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony DavisDavis (20.4 points per game): best in the paint (44% on 77 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (38%, league 42%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneWAS offenseLAC defenseLAC offenseWAS defense
At the rim67.3% (9th)67.2% (20th)69.4% (3rd)68.5% (26th)
Paint38.9% (28th)43.5% (10th)45.3% (12th)40.6% (2nd)
Midrange43.4% (8th)39.4% (3rd)41.4% (17th)41.9% (14th)
Corner 339.2% (10th)38.8% (15th)41.6% (5th)40.9% (28th)
Above-the-break 334.9% (16th)35.6% (22nd)35.1% (14th)35.5% (20th)

Matchups on Sun, Jan 18

6 games
  • Magic at GrizzliesFinal

    How the Magic beat the Grizzlies

    1. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Magic defense there ranks 23rd (45.3% allowed).
    2. AttackAttack the rim32.6% of Magic shots come at the rim (6th most), and the Grizzlies allow 68.4% there (24th of 30).

    How the Grizzlies beat the Magic

    1. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nets at BullsFinal

    How the Nets beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.9% of Nets shots come from above the break (6th most), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Nets play at 96.2 possessions per 48 minutes (25th in pace), the Bulls at 101.9 (2nd). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Bulls beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the corner 312.0% of Bulls shots come from the corners (6th most), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Bulls play at 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes (2nd in pace), the Nets at 96.2 (25th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pelicans at RocketsFinal

    How the Pelicans beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st) and the Pelicans rank 28th on the defensive glass (71.4%).

    How the Rockets beat the Pelicans

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st), and the Pelicans rank 28th on the defensive glass (71.4%).
    2. AttackAttack the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hornets at NuggetsFinal

    How the Hornets beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).

    How the Nuggets beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Nuggets defense there ranks 11th (34.2% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon MillerMiller (20.2 points per game): best from the corners (42% on 71 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (37%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Trail Blazers at KingsFinal

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.6% of Trail Blazers shots come from above the break (5th most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the rim33.5% of Trail Blazers shots come at the rim (4th most), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).

    How the Kings beat the Trail Blazers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Raptors at LakersFinal

    How the Raptors beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Raptors shoot 44.1% from midrange (6th), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).

    How the Lakers beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Lakers defense there ranks 29th (70.5% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.