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Game plans

Tuesday, March 17

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Raptors at Jazz

How the Raptors beat the Jazz

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
  2. AttackAttack the rimThe Raptors shoot 67.7% at the rim (7th), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most) and they make 47.6% (5th). The Raptors defense there ranks 19th (44.5% allowed).
  4. AttackAttack midrangeThe Raptors shoot 44.1% from midrange (6th), and the Jazz allow 44.1% there (28th of 30).
  5. AttackAttack the paint20.9% of Raptors shots come in the paint (9th most), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).

How the Jazz beat the Raptors

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
  2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Jazz give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).
  3. TempoPush the paceThe Jazz play at 101.6 possessions per 48 minutes (3rd in pace), the Raptors at 97.5 (22nd). Run and make them keep up.
  4. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Jazz defense there ranks 30th (72.0% allowed).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneTOR offenseUTA defenseUTA offenseTOR defense
At the rim67.7% (7th)72.0% (30th)66.5% (14th)66.0% (15th)
Paint43.6% (20th)48.8% (30th)47.6% (5th)44.5% (19th)
Midrange44.1% (6th)44.1% (28th)38.8% (25th)39.8% (7th)
Corner 338.6% (13th)39.2% (21st)38.1% (16th)38.6% (14th)
Above-the-break 334.1% (23rd)36.4% (27th)32.9% (29th)33.7% (2nd)

02Matchups on Tue, Mar 17

8 games
  • Heat at HornetsFinal

    How the Heat beat the Hornets

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Heat defense there ranks 16th (34.7% allowed).

    How the Hornets beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Hornets play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Thunder at MagicFinal

    How the Thunder beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Thunder shoot 46.1% in the paint (7th), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).

    How the Magic beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pistons at WizardsFinal

    How the Pistons beat the Wizards

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd), and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
    2. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st), and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).

    How the Wizards beat the Pistons

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd) and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
    2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st) and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pacers at KnicksFinal

    How the Pacers beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Pacers defense there ranks 22nd (39.4% allowed).

    How the Knicks beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Knicks shoot 44.9% from midrange (2nd), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most), and the Pacers allow 39.4% there (22nd of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Cavaliers at BucksFinal

    How the Cavaliers beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Cavaliers defense there ranks 25th (40.1% allowed).

    How the Bucks beat the Cavaliers

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Bucks shoot 42.9% from the corners (2nd), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Bucks shoot 36.9% from above the break (2nd), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Suns at TimberwolvesFinal

    How the Suns beat the Timberwolves

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Suns shoot 39.6% from the corners (7th), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    How the Timberwolves beat the Suns

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Timberwolves shoot 67.4% at the rim (8th), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Timberwolves play at 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes (9th in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • 76ers at NuggetsFinal

    How the 76ers beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim33.4% of 76ers shots come at the rim (5th most), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the 76ers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at KingsFinal

    How the Spurs beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the rim32.3% of Spurs shots come at the rim (7th most), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Spurs defense there ranks 7th (42.5% allowed).

    How the Kings beat the Spurs

    1. AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.