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Game plans · Sunday, December 20

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Spurs at Pelicans

How the Spurs beat the Pelicans

  1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).
  3. AttackAttack the paintThe Spurs shoot 45.7% in the paint (10th), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).

How the Pelicans beat the Spurs

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneSAS offenseNOP defenseNOP offenseSAS defense
At the rim67.1% (12th)66.7% (18th)62.8% (29th)62.7% (5th)
Paint45.7% (10th)47.9% (28th)38.0% (30th)42.5% (7th)
Midrange43.6% (7th)40.9% (12th)33.7% (30th)42.5% (22nd)
Corner 338.9% (12th)37.0% (5th)39.2% (9th)34.6% (1st)
Above-the-break 334.4% (20th)34.3% (12th)33.2% (26th)35.4% (19th)

Matchups on Sun, Dec 20

10 games
  • Wizards at Nets3:00 PM ET

    How the Wizards beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Wizards shoot 39.2% from the corners (10th), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Wizards play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Nets at 96.2 (25th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Nets beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the corner 311.5% of Nets shots come from the corners (9th most), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Nets play at 96.2 possessions per 48 minutes (25th in pace), the Wizards at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Rockets at Raptors3:30 PM ET

    How the Rockets beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Rockets defense there ranks 12th (65.3% allowed).

    How the Raptors beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Raptors defense there ranks 19th (44.5% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Suns at Grizzlies4:00 PM ET

    How the Suns beat the Grizzlies

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Suns grab 28.9% of their misses (7th), and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Suns defense there ranks 14th (44.1% allowed).

    How the Grizzlies beat the Suns

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Suns grab 28.9% of their misses (7th) and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Grizzlies play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Jazz at Cavaliers6:00 PM ET

    How the Jazz beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the corner 311.9% of Jazz shots come from the corners (7th most), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).

    How the Cavaliers beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Cavaliers shoot 47.8% in the paint (4th), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Kings at Heat6:00 PM ET

    How the Kings beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Kings play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Heat beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the paint21.9% of Heat shots come in the paint (5th most), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Heat shoot 35.6% from above the break (9th), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Thunder at Hawks7:00 PM ET

    How the Thunder beat the Hawks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Thunder play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    How the Hawks beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Hawks shoot 36.4% from above the break (4th), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at Pelicans7:00 PM ET

    How the Spurs beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).

    How the Pelicans beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pistons at Celtics8:00 PM ET

    How the Pistons beat the Celtics

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Pistons defense there ranks 1st (33.1% allowed).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Pistons play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Celtics beat the Pistons

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Pistons at 98.3 (18th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at Bucks8:00 PM ET

    How the Warriors beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Warriors defense there ranks 27th (40.9% allowed).

    How the Bucks beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Bucks shoot 42.9% from the corners (2nd), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrange12.6% of Bucks shots come from midrange (3rd most), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pacers at Clippers10:00 PM ET

    How the Pacers beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Pacers play at 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes (8th in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Clippers beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack the paint21.5% of Clippers shots come in the paint (6th most), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.