Game plans · Thursday, January 21
How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.
Plan any matchup
Trail Blazers at Hawks
How the Trail Blazers beat the Hawks
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Hawks force turnovers on 13.2% of plays (6th) and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).
How the Hawks beat the Trail Blazers
- TurnoversPressure the ballThe Hawks force turnovers on 13.2% of plays (6th), and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).
| Zone | POR offense | ATL defense | ATL offense | POR defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 64.9% (22nd) | 65.2% (10th) | 64.9% (21st) | 65.3% (13th) |
| Paint | 38.7% (29th) | 44.2% (18th) | 45.0% (14th) | 44.1% (16th) |
| Midrange | 37.5% (27th) | 42.0% (17th) | 42.3% (13th) | 42.1% (19th) |
| Corner 3 | 34.4% (30th) | 38.1% (10th) | 38.9% (11th) | 39.0% (19th) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 34.2% (21st) | 34.6% (15th) | 36.4% (4th) | 34.5% (14th) |
Matchups on Thu, Jan 21
- 76ers at Celtics
How the 76ers beat the Celtics
- Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The 76ers defense there ranks 3rd (33.8% allowed).
- GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th) and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
How the Celtics beat the 76ers
- GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
- TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the 76ers at 98.8 (15th). Make it a half-court game.
- Cavaliers at Nets
How the Cavaliers beat the Nets
- AttackAttack the paintThe Cavaliers shoot 47.8% in the paint (4th), and the Nets allow 46.6% there (25th of 30).
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.3% of Cavaliers shots come from above the break (7th most), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).
How the Nets beat the Cavaliers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.9% of Nets shots come from above the break (6th most), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).
- Wizards at Nuggets
How the Wizards beat the Nuggets
- Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
- AttackAttack the rimThe Wizards shoot 67.3% at the rim (9th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).
How the Nuggets beat the Wizards
- AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).
- Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Nuggets defense there ranks 10th (40.4% allowed).
- Lakers at Warriors
How the Lakers beat the Warriors
- AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
- AttackAttack midrangeThe Lakers shoot 44.4% from midrange (5th), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).
How the Warriors beat the Lakers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
- AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.