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Game plans

Wednesday, October 28

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Trail Blazers at Kings

How the Trail Blazers beat the Kings

  1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.6% of Trail Blazers shots come from above the break (5th most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack the rim33.5% of Trail Blazers shots come at the rim (4th most), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Trail Blazers defense there ranks 16th (44.1% allowed).
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Zach LaVineLaVine (19.2 points per game): best from the corners (45% on 55 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%). 37% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

How the Kings beat the Trail Blazers

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZonePOR offenseSAC defenseSAC offensePOR defense
At the rim64.9% (22nd)69.8% (28th)68.2% (6th)65.3% (13th)
Paint38.7% (29th)48.7% (29th)45.7% (9th)44.1% (16th)
Midrange37.5% (27th)43.7% (27th)41.8% (16th)42.1% (19th)
Corner 334.4% (30th)39.0% (17th)35.1% (28th)39.0% (19th)
Above-the-break 334.2% (21st)37.6% (30th)33.7% (25th)34.5% (14th)

02Matchups on Wed, Oct 28

12 games
  • Heat at Hawks7:00 PM ET

    How the Heat beat the Hawks

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    How the Hawks beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Hawks play at 100.7 possessions per 48 minutes (7th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Wizards at Cavaliers7:00 PM ET

    How the Wizards beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Wizards shoot 39.2% from the corners (10th), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).

    How the Cavaliers beat the Wizards

    1. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Cavaliers defense there ranks 20th (42.4% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony DavisDavis (20.4 points per game): best in the paint (44% on 77 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (38%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hornets at Pistons7:00 PM ET

    How the Hornets beat the Pistons

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st) and the Hornets give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    How the Pistons beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Pistons defense there ranks 1st (33.1% allowed).
    2. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st), and the Hornets give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • 76ers at Pacers7:00 PM ET

    How the 76ers beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe 76ers shoot 43.0% from midrange (9th), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.

    How the Pacers beat the 76ers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Magic at Raptors7:30 PM ET

    How the Magic beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Magic defense there ranks 21st (67.5% allowed).

    How the Raptors beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Raptors shoot 67.7% at the rim (7th), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Knicks at Bulls8:00 PM ET

    How the Knicks beat the Bulls

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Knicks play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Bulls at 101.9 (2nd). Make it a half-court game.
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Knicks shoot 44.9% from midrange (2nd), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).

    How the Bulls beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Bulls play at 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes (2nd in pace), the Knicks at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Rockets at Bucks8:00 PM ET

    How the Rockets beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Rockets defense there ranks 12th (38.5% allowed).

    How the Bucks beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Bucks defense there ranks 3rd (41.1% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at Timberwolves8:00 PM ET

    How the Warriors beat the Timberwolves

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    How the Timberwolves beat the Warriors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most) and they make 39.5% (8th). The Timberwolves defense there ranks 26th (40.7% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at Pelicans8:00 PM ET

    How the Nuggets beat the Pelicans

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Nuggets shoot 48.4% in the paint (2nd), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).
    2. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.

    How the Pelicans beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim40.4% of Pelicans shots come at the rim (1st most), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at Jazz9:00 PM ET

    How the Spurs beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim32.3% of Spurs shots come at the rim (7th most), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).

    How the Jazz beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Jazz play at 101.6 possessions per 48 minutes (3rd in pace), the Spurs at 99.1 (13th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Thunder at Mavericks9:30 PM ET

    How the Thunder beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Thunder shoot 48.1% from midrange (1st), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Thunder shoot 46.1% in the paint (7th), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).

    How the Mavericks beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Mavericks play at 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes (4th in pace), the Thunder at 98.5 (16th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Lakers at Clippers10:30 PM ET

    How the Lakers beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Lakers shoot 36.3% from above the break (6th), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Clippers beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Clippers shoot 69.4% at the rim (3rd), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.