Game plans · Sunday, March 22
How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.
Plan any matchup
Trail Blazers at 76ers
How the Trail Blazers beat the 76ers
- GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe 76ers force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th) and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).
How the 76ers beat the Trail Blazers
- GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd) and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
- TurnoversPressure the ballThe 76ers force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th), and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).
| Zone | POR offense | PHI defense | PHI offense | POR defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 64.9% (22nd) | 65.4% (14th) | 63.3% (28th) | 65.3% (13th) |
| Paint | 38.7% (29th) | 42.4% (5th) | 40.7% (25th) | 44.1% (16th) |
| Midrange | 37.5% (27th) | 40.7% (11th) | 43.0% (9th) | 42.1% (19th) |
| Corner 3 | 34.4% (30th) | 39.1% (20th) | 37.2% (24th) | 39.0% (19th) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 34.2% (21st) | 33.8% (3rd) | 34.2% (22nd) | 34.5% (14th) |
Matchups on Sun, Mar 22
- Trail Blazers at Nuggets
How the Trail Blazers beat the Nuggets
- Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
- AttackAttack the rim33.5% of Trail Blazers shots come at the rim (4th most), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).
How the Nuggets beat the Trail Blazers
- TempoSlow it downThe Nuggets play at 97.7 possessions per 48 minutes (20th in pace), the Trail Blazers at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.
- Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).
- Nets at Kings
How the Nets beat the Kings
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.9% of Nets shots come from above the break (6th most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
- Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Nets defense there ranks 25th (46.6% allowed).
How the Kings beat the Nets
- AttackAttack the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most), and the Nets allow 46.6% there (25th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Michael Porter Jr.Porter (24.2 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 227 shots, league 66%), worst from the corners (32%, league 39%).
- Wizards at Knicks
How the Wizards beat the Knicks
- TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
- GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Knicks grab 29.3% of their misses (5th) and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
How the Knicks beat the Wizards
- AttackAttack the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).
- GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Knicks grab 29.3% of their misses (5th), and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
- Timberwolves at Celtics
How the Timberwolves beat the Celtics
- TempoPush the paceThe Timberwolves play at 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes (9th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Timberwolves shoot 36.5% from above the break (3rd), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
How the Celtics beat the Timberwolves
- TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Timberwolves at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.
- AttackAttack the corner 3The Celtics shoot 41.8% from the corners (4th), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
- Raptors at Suns
How the Raptors beat the Suns
- AttackAttack the rimThe Raptors shoot 67.7% at the rim (7th), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
How the Suns beat the Raptors
- Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
- Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Suns defense there ranks 23rd (67.9% allowed).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.