Game plans · Tuesday, January 20
How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.
Plan any matchup
Suns at 76ers
How the Suns beat the 76ers
- GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Suns grab 28.9% of their misses (7th), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).
- TempoSlow it downThe Suns play at 96.3 possessions per 48 minutes (24th in pace), the 76ers at 98.8 (15th). Make it a half-court game.
How the 76ers beat the Suns
- GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Suns grab 28.9% of their misses (7th) and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
- AttackAttack the rim33.4% of 76ers shots come at the rim (5th most), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
- TempoPush the paceThe 76ers play at 98.8 possessions per 48 minutes (15th in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.
- Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
| Zone | PHX offense | PHI defense | PHI offense | PHX defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 65.8% (17th) | 65.4% (14th) | 63.3% (28th) | 67.9% (23rd) |
| Paint | 43.7% (19th) | 42.4% (5th) | 40.7% (25th) | 44.1% (14th) |
| Midrange | 42.3% (11th) | 40.7% (11th) | 43.0% (9th) | 42.0% (16th) |
| Corner 3 | 39.6% (7th) | 39.1% (20th) | 37.2% (24th) | 36.4% (3rd) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 35.1% (13th) | 33.8% (3rd) | 34.2% (22nd) | 34.0% (5th) |
Matchups on Tue, Jan 20
- Suns at 76ers
How the Suns beat the 76ers
- GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Suns grab 28.9% of their misses (7th), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).
How the 76ers beat the Suns
- GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Suns grab 28.9% of their misses (7th) and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
- AttackAttack the rim33.4% of 76ers shots come at the rim (5th most), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
- Clippers at Bulls
How the Clippers beat the Bulls
- TempoSlow it downThe Clippers play at 95.6 possessions per 48 minutes (28th in pace), the Bulls at 101.9 (2nd). Make it a half-court game.
- Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).
How the Bulls beat the Clippers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
- TempoPush the paceThe Bulls play at 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes (2nd in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.
- Spurs at Rockets
How the Spurs beat the Rockets
- Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
- Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Spurs defense there ranks 7th (42.5% allowed).
How the Rockets beat the Spurs
- AttackAttack midrange12.8% of Rockets shots come from midrange (2nd most), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
- Timberwolves at Jazz
How the Timberwolves beat the Jazz
- Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Timberwolves shoot 36.5% from above the break (3rd), and the Jazz allow 36.4% there (27th of 30).
How the Jazz beat the Timberwolves
- AttackAttack the corner 311.9% of Jazz shots come from the corners (7th most), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
- Lakers at Nuggets
How the Lakers beat the Nuggets
- Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
- AttackAttack the rimThe Lakers shoot 73.4% at the rim (1st), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).
How the Nuggets beat the Lakers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
- AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).
- Raptors at Warriors
How the Raptors beat the Warriors
- TurnoversPressure the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th), and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).
How the Warriors beat the Raptors
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
- Heat at Kings
How the Heat beat the Kings
- AttackAttack the paint21.9% of Heat shots come in the paint (5th most), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Heat shoot 35.6% from above the break (9th), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
How the Kings beat the Heat
- Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
- TempoSlow it downThe Kings play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.