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Game plans · Thursday, January 28

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Magic at Rockets

How the Magic beat the Rockets

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
  2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Magic defense there ranks 23rd (45.3% allowed).
  3. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Durant, Sengun, Smith, Thompson and Sheppard share the floor (272 min), they allow 123.1 per 100, against 114.2 for the team: attack it.
  4. TempoPush the paceThe Magic play at 99.3 possessions per 48 minutes (12th in pace), the Rockets at 95.2 (29th). Run and make them keep up.

How the Rockets beat the Magic

  1. AttackAttack the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
  3. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Magic at 99.3 (12th). Make it a half-court game.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneORL offenseHOU defenseHOU offenseORL defense
At the rim65.4% (19th)65.3% (12th)65.8% (16th)67.5% (21st)
Paint40.3% (26th)44.1% (15th)47.2% (6th)45.3% (23rd)
Midrange43.0% (10th)39.1% (2nd)40.2% (20th)42.1% (18th)
Corner 338.4% (15th)38.5% (12th)37.3% (21st)38.5% (13th)
Above-the-break 332.6% (30th)34.1% (6th)36.1% (7th)34.2% (7th)

Matchups on Thu, Jan 28

8 games
  • Lakers at Pacers7:00 PM ET

    How the Lakers beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Lakers shoot 44.4% from midrange (5th), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).

    How the Pacers beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint21.5% of Lakers shots come in the paint (7th most) and they make 48.8% (1st). The Pacers defense there ranks 27th (47.1% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hawks at Knicks7:00 PM ET

    How the Hawks beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Hawks defense there ranks 10th (38.1% allowed).

    How the Knicks beat the Hawks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Knicks play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at Magic7:00 PM ET

    How the Bulls beat the Magic

    1. AttackAttack the rim36.1% of Bulls shots come at the rim (2nd most), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).

    How the Magic beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Magic shoot 43.0% from midrange (10th), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Kings at Wizards7:00 PM ET

    How the Kings beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Kings shoot 68.2% at the rim (6th), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Kings defense there ranks 27th (43.7% allowed).

    How the Wizards beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most), and the Kings allow 43.7% there (27th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Wizards defense there ranks 2nd (40.6% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • 76ers at Pelicans8:00 PM ET

    How the 76ers beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).

    How the Pelicans beat the 76ers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Pelicans grab 27.0% of their misses (8th), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Grizzlies at Thunder8:00 PM ET

    How the Grizzlies beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.0% of Grizzlies shots come from above the break (8th most), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).

    How the Thunder beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Thunder shoot 48.1% from midrange (1st), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Thunder defense there ranks 1st (39.9% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at Jazz9:00 PM ET

    How the Warriors beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).

    How the Jazz beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Heat at Bucks9:30 PM ET

    How the Heat beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Heat defense there ranks 18th (39.0% allowed).

    How the Bucks beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Bucks play at 96.8 possessions per 48 minutes (23rd in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.