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Heat at Bucks · Thu, Jan 28 · 9:30 PM ET

Miami at Milwaukee. Here is where each team has the edge.

MiamiMilwaukee

9:30 PM ET
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Pregame win chance

The win-chance line starts at tip-off.

Every basket moves it.

From team Elo ratings, home court and rest. How this works

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01Where the edges are

Based on 2025-26

Heat edges

  • On offenseMiami's offense protects the ball (4th) against a Milwaukee defense that rarely forces turnovers (25th).

Bucks edges

No clear mismatch in Milwaukee's favor.

An edge is where one team ranks top 5 on a four-factor battle and the other ranks bottom 8. How edges work

Using last season's numbers until both teams have played 10 games this season. Rosters may have changed.

02Tale of the tape

Based on 2025-26
MIARankStatRankMIL
117.513thOffensive rating23rd113.9
115.212thDefensive rating27th120.2
+2.313thNet rating25th-6.4
102.81stPace23rd96.8
54.217thEffective FG %3rd56.5
11.24thTurnover %27th13.3
25.417thOffensive rebound %30th21.1
21.214thFree throw rate30th16.3
54.07thOpponent eFG %25th55.8
12.217thForced turnover %25th11.1
74.98thDefensive rebound %15th74.1
19.39thOpponent FT rate19th21.5

Game plan

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03Form and season series

Heat4-6 in the last 10

  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L

Bucks3-7 in the last 10

  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L

2025-26 series: Wed, Nov 26 MIL 103, MIA 106 · Tue, Feb 24 MIA 117, MIL 128 · Thu, Mar 12 MIL 105, MIA 112

04Key players

Current roster · 2025-26 numbers