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Game plans · Tuesday, January 20

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
at

Thunder at Lakers

How the Thunder beat the Lakers

  1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Thunder shoot 48.1% from midrange (1st), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint21.5% of Lakers shots come in the paint (7th most) and they make 48.8% (1st). The Thunder defense there ranks 1st (39.9% allowed).
  4. AttackAttack the rimThe Thunder shoot 67.2% at the rim (10th), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).

How the Lakers beat the Thunder

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
  2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Lakers shoot 36.3% from above the break (6th), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneOKC offenseLAL defenseLAL offenseOKC defense
At the rim67.2% (10th)70.5% (29th)73.4% (1st)60.1% (1st)
Paint46.1% (7th)43.0% (9th)48.8% (1st)39.9% (1st)
Midrange48.1% (1st)44.7% (29th)44.4% (5th)38.0% (1st)
Corner 338.1% (17th)37.7% (8th)34.9% (29th)39.9% (24th)
Above-the-break 335.9% (8th)34.2% (10th)36.3% (6th)35.6% (23rd)

Matchups on Tue, Jan 20

7 games
  • Suns at 76ersFinal

    How the Suns beat the 76ers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Suns grab 28.9% of their misses (7th), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    How the 76ers beat the Suns

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Suns grab 28.9% of their misses (7th) and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim33.4% of 76ers shots come at the rim (5th most), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Clippers at BullsFinal

    How the Clippers beat the Bulls

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Clippers play at 95.6 possessions per 48 minutes (28th in pace), the Bulls at 101.9 (2nd). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    How the Bulls beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Bulls play at 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes (2nd in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at RocketsFinal

    How the Spurs beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Spurs defense there ranks 7th (42.5% allowed).

    How the Rockets beat the Spurs

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.8% of Rockets shots come from midrange (2nd most), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Timberwolves at JazzFinal

    How the Timberwolves beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Timberwolves shoot 36.5% from above the break (3rd), and the Jazz allow 36.4% there (27th of 30).

    How the Jazz beat the Timberwolves

    1. AttackAttack the corner 311.9% of Jazz shots come from the corners (7th most), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Lakers at NuggetsFinal

    How the Lakers beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Lakers shoot 73.4% at the rim (1st), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Raptors at WarriorsFinal

    How the Raptors beat the Warriors

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th), and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    How the Warriors beat the Raptors

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Heat at KingsFinal

    How the Heat beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the paint21.9% of Heat shots come in the paint (5th most), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Heat shoot 35.6% from above the break (9th), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).

    How the Kings beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Kings play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.