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Game plans

Wednesday, April 8

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Pelicans at Kings

How the Pelicans beat the Kings

  1. AttackAttack the rim40.4% of Pelicans shots come at the rim (1st most), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
  2. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Pelicans defense there ranks 28th (47.9% allowed).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Zach LaVineLaVine (19.2 points per game): best from the corners (45% on 55 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%). 37% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

How the Kings beat the Pelicans

  1. AttackAttack the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).
  2. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneNOP offenseSAC defenseSAC offenseNOP defense
At the rim62.8% (29th)69.8% (28th)68.2% (6th)66.7% (18th)
Paint38.0% (30th)48.7% (29th)45.7% (9th)47.9% (28th)
Midrange33.7% (30th)43.7% (27th)41.8% (16th)40.9% (12th)
Corner 339.2% (9th)39.0% (17th)35.1% (28th)37.0% (5th)
Above-the-break 333.2% (26th)37.6% (30th)33.7% (25th)34.3% (12th)

02Matchups on Wed, Apr 8

7 games
  • Hawks at CavaliersFinal

    How the Hawks beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Hawks shoot 36.4% from above the break (4th), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).

    How the Cavaliers beat the Hawks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Timberwolves at MagicFinal

    How the Timberwolves beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Timberwolves shoot 67.4% at the rim (8th), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).

    How the Magic beat the Timberwolves

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bucks at PistonsFinal

    How the Bucks beat the Pistons

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st) and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    How the Pistons beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Pistons defense there ranks 11th (38.5% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Grizzlies at NuggetsFinal

    How the Grizzlies beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Nuggets allow 45.3% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Grizzlies allow 39.6% there (23rd of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Trail Blazers at SpursFinal

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    How the Spurs beat the Trail Blazers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Thunder at ClippersFinal

    How the Thunder beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Thunder shoot 35.9% from above the break (8th), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Clippers beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Clippers shoot 41.6% from the corners (5th), and the Thunder allow 39.9% there (24th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at SunsFinal

    How the Mavericks beat the Suns

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Mavericks play at 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes (4th in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).

    How the Suns beat the Mavericks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Suns play at 96.3 possessions per 48 minutes (24th in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. AttackAttack midrange11.7% of Suns shots come from midrange (6th most), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.