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Game plans

Friday, October 30

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Timberwolves at Magic

How the Timberwolves beat the Magic

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
  2. AttackAttack the rimThe Timberwolves shoot 67.4% at the rim (8th), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).

How the Magic beat the Timberwolves

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneMIN offenseORL defenseORL offenseMIN defense
At the rim67.4% (8th)67.5% (21st)65.4% (19th)62.4% (3rd)
Paint44.2% (16th)45.3% (23rd)40.3% (26th)42.9% (8th)
Midrange42.1% (14th)42.1% (18th)43.0% (10th)40.0% (9th)
Corner 338.5% (14th)38.5% (13th)38.4% (15th)40.7% (26th)
Above-the-break 336.5% (3rd)34.2% (7th)32.6% (30th)33.9% (4th)

02Matchups on Fri, Oct 30

10 games
  • Hornets at Wizards7:00 PM ET

    How the Hornets beat the Wizards

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th), and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Hornets shoot 42.8% from the corners (3rd), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).

    How the Wizards beat the Hornets

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th) and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Wizards defense there ranks 20th (35.5% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at Celtics7:30 PM ET

    How the Bulls beat the Celtics

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Bulls play at 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes (2nd in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Bulls defense there ranks 29th (36.6% allowed).

    How the Celtics beat the Bulls

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Bulls at 101.9 (2nd). Make it a half-court game.
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pistons at Nets7:30 PM ET

    How the Pistons beat the Nets

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st), and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Michael Porter Jr.Porter (24.2 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 227 shots, league 66%), worst from the corners (32%, league 39%).

    How the Nets beat the Pistons

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st) and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Knicks at 76ers7:30 PM ET

    How the Knicks beat the 76ers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Knicks grab 29.3% of their misses (5th), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Knicks play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the 76ers at 98.8 (15th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the 76ers beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The 76ers defense there ranks 20th (39.1% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Magic at Raptors7:30 PM ET

    How the Magic beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Magic defense there ranks 21st (67.5% allowed).

    How the Raptors beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Raptors shoot 67.7% at the rim (7th), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pacers at Heat8:00 PM ET

    How the Pacers beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Pacers play at 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes (8th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Heat beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack the paint21.9% of Heat shots come in the paint (5th most), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Rockets at Mavericks8:00 PM ET

    How the Rockets beat the Mavericks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. AttackAttack the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).

    How the Mavericks beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Mavericks play at 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes (4th in pace), the Rockets at 95.2 (29th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Clippers at Timberwolves8:00 PM ET

    How the Clippers beat the Timberwolves

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Clippers shoot 41.6% from the corners (5th), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Clippers play at 95.6 possessions per 48 minutes (28th in pace), the Timberwolves at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Timberwolves beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Timberwolves shoot 36.5% from above the break (3rd), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Lakers at Warriors10:00 PM ET

    How the Lakers beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Lakers shoot 44.4% from midrange (5th), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).

    How the Warriors beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at Suns10:00 PM ET

    How the Nuggets beat the Suns

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).

    How the Suns beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.