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Game plans · Wednesday, February 11

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
at

Heat at Pelicans

How the Heat beat the Pelicans

  1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
  2. AttackAttack the paint21.9% of Heat shots come in the paint (5th most), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).
  4. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Pelicans at 99.5 (11th). Run and make them keep up.

How the Pelicans beat the Heat

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
  2. TempoSlow it downThe Pelicans play at 99.5 possessions per 48 minutes (11th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneMIA offenseNOP defenseNOP offenseMIA defense
At the rim65.1% (20th)66.7% (18th)62.8% (29th)65.3% (11th)
Paint44.2% (17th)47.9% (28th)38.0% (30th)44.8% (20th)
Midrange37.8% (26th)40.9% (12th)33.7% (30th)39.5% (4th)
Corner 337.6% (19th)37.0% (5th)39.2% (9th)39.0% (18th)
Above-the-break 335.6% (9th)34.3% (12th)33.2% (26th)34.7% (16th)

Matchups on Wed, Feb 11

14 games
  • Hawks at HornetsFinal

    How the Hawks beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Hawks defense there ranks 15th (34.6% allowed).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Hawks play at 100.7 possessions per 48 minutes (7th in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Hornets beat the Hawks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Hornets play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Hawks force turnovers on 13.2% of plays (6th) and the Hornets give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Wizards at CavaliersFinal

    How the Wizards beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Wizards shoot 39.2% from the corners (10th), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).

    How the Cavaliers beat the Wizards

    1. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Cavaliers defense there ranks 20th (42.4% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony DavisDavis (20.4 points per game): best in the paint (44% on 77 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (38%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bucks at MagicFinal

    How the Bucks beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Bucks shoot 68.7% at the rim (5th), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).

    How the Magic beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Magic defense there ranks 13th (38.5% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at CelticsFinal

    How the Bulls beat the Celtics

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Bulls play at 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes (2nd in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Bulls defense there ranks 29th (36.6% allowed).

    How the Celtics beat the Bulls

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Bulls at 101.9 (2nd). Make it a half-court game.
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pacers at NetsFinal

    How the Pacers beat the Nets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Michael Porter Jr.Porter (24.2 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 227 shots, league 66%), worst from the corners (32%, league 39%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Pacers play at 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes (8th in pace), the Nets at 96.2 (25th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Nets beat the Pacers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Nets play at 96.2 possessions per 48 minutes (25th in pace), the Pacers at 100.3 (8th). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Knicks at 76ersFinal

    How the Knicks beat the 76ers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Knicks grab 29.3% of their misses (5th), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Knicks play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the 76ers at 98.8 (15th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the 76ers beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The 76ers defense there ranks 20th (39.1% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pistons at RaptorsFinal

    How the Pistons beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Pistons defense there ranks 2nd (61.9% allowed).

    How the Raptors beat the Pistons

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Clippers at RocketsFinal

    How the Clippers beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Clippers defense there ranks 10th (43.5% allowed).

    How the Rockets beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Rockets shoot 36.1% from above the break (7th), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Trail Blazers at TimberwolvesFinal

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Timberwolves

    1. AttackAttack the corner 312.2% of Trail Blazers shots come from the corners (5th most), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    How the Timberwolves beat the Trail Blazers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Heat at PelicansFinal

    How the Heat beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. AttackAttack the paint21.9% of Heat shots come in the paint (5th most), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).

    How the Pelicans beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Pelicans play at 99.5 possessions per 48 minutes (11th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Thunder at SunsFinal

    How the Thunder beat the Suns

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Thunder shoot 67.2% at the rim (10th), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).

    How the Suns beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.9% of Suns shots come from above the break (4th most), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Kings at JazzFinal

    How the Kings beat the Jazz

    1. AttackAttack the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Jazz allow 44.1% there (28th of 30).

    How the Jazz beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Jazz defense there ranks 30th (48.8% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Grizzlies at NuggetsFinal

    How the Grizzlies beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Nuggets allow 45.3% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Grizzlies allow 39.6% there (23rd of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at WarriorsFinal

    How the Spurs beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.9% of Spurs shots come from the corners (1st most), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    How the Warriors beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.