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Game plans

Saturday, October 24

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Grizzlies at Bucks

How the Grizzlies beat the Bucks

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
  2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Grizzlies defense there ranks 23rd (39.6% allowed).
  3. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Grizzlies force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th), and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
  4. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.0% of Grizzlies shots come from above the break (8th most), and the Bucks allow 36.4% there (26th of 30).
  5. TempoPush the paceThe Grizzlies play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Bucks at 96.8 (23rd). Run and make them keep up.

How the Bucks beat the Grizzlies

  1. AttackAttack midrange12.6% of Bucks shots come from midrange (3rd most), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Bucks shoot 42.9% from the corners (2nd), and the Grizzlies allow 39.6% there (23rd of 30).
  3. AttackAttack the rimThe Bucks shoot 68.7% at the rim (5th), and the Grizzlies allow 68.4% there (24th of 30).
  4. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Bucks defense there ranks 3rd (41.1% allowed).
  5. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Grizzlies force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th) and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneMEM offenseMIL defenseMIL offenseMEM defense
At the rim64.1% (25th)68.5% (25th)68.7% (5th)68.4% (24th)
Paint45.9% (8th)41.1% (3rd)42.7% (23rd)44.9% (21st)
Midrange40.3% (19th)42.0% (15th)42.3% (12th)43.1% (24th)
Corner 336.5% (27th)41.1% (29th)42.9% (2nd)39.6% (23rd)
Above-the-break 334.8% (18th)36.4% (26th)36.9% (2nd)35.2% (18th)

02Matchups on Sat, Oct 24

8 games
  • Heat at Hornets6:00 PM ET

    How the Heat beat the Hornets

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Heat defense there ranks 16th (34.7% allowed).

    How the Hornets beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Hornets play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nets at Cavaliers7:30 PM ET

    How the Nets beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.9% of Nets shots come from above the break (6th most), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).

    How the Cavaliers beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Cavaliers shoot 47.8% in the paint (4th), and the Nets allow 46.6% there (25th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.3% of Cavaliers shots come from above the break (7th most), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bucks at 76ers7:30 PM ET

    How the Bucks beat the 76ers

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe 76ers force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th) and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    How the 76ers beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The 76ers defense there ranks 20th (39.1% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Wizards at Bulls8:00 PM ET

    How the Wizards beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    How the Bulls beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the rim36.1% of Bulls shots come at the rim (2nd most), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 312.0% of Bulls shots come from the corners (6th most), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at Mavericks8:00 PM ET

    How the Spurs beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Spurs shoot 43.6% from midrange (7th), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Spurs shoot 45.7% in the paint (10th), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).

    How the Mavericks beat the Spurs

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Rockets at Hawks8:30 PM ET

    How the Rockets beat the Hawks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    How the Hawks beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Hawks defense there ranks 18th (44.2% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pelicans at Nuggets9:00 PM ET

    How the Pelicans beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim40.4% of Pelicans shots come at the rim (1st most), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Pelicans

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Nuggets shoot 48.4% in the paint (2nd), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).
    2. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at Suns10:00 PM ET

    How the Warriors beat the Suns

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd) and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).

    How the Suns beat the Warriors

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd), and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.