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Game plans · Thursday, December 11

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Clippers at Rockets

How the Clippers beat the Rockets

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
  2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Clippers defense there ranks 10th (43.5% allowed).
  3. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Durant, Sengun, Smith, Thompson and Sheppard share the floor (272 min), they allow 123.1 per 100, against 114.2 for the team: attack it.

How the Rockets beat the Clippers

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
  2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Rockets shoot 36.1% from above the break (7th), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneLAC offenseHOU defenseHOU offenseLAC defense
At the rim69.4% (3rd)65.3% (12th)65.8% (16th)67.2% (20th)
Paint45.3% (12th)44.1% (15th)47.2% (6th)43.5% (10th)
Midrange41.4% (17th)39.1% (2nd)40.2% (20th)39.4% (3rd)
Corner 341.6% (5th)38.5% (12th)37.3% (21st)38.8% (15th)
Above-the-break 335.1% (14th)34.1% (6th)36.1% (7th)35.6% (22nd)

Matchups on Thu, Dec 11

4 games
  • Clippers at RocketsFinal

    How the Clippers beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Clippers defense there ranks 10th (43.5% allowed).

    How the Rockets beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Rockets shoot 36.1% from above the break (7th), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at BucksFinal

    How the Celtics beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Celtics defense there ranks 2nd (36.2% allowed).

    How the Bucks beat the Celtics

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Bucks shoot 36.9% from above the break (2nd), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Bucks defense there ranks 26th (36.4% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Trail Blazers at PelicansFinal

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Pelicans

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd), and the Pelicans rank 28th on the defensive glass (71.4%).
    2. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.

    How the Pelicans beat the Trail Blazers

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd) and the Pelicans rank 28th on the defensive glass (71.4%).
    2. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Pelicans grab 27.0% of their misses (8th), and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at KingsFinal

    How the Nuggets beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Nuggets shoot 37.8% from above the break (1st), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Nuggets shoot 48.4% in the paint (2nd), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).

    How the Kings beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Kings shoot 68.2% at the rim (6th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.