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Game plans · Wednesday, December 23

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Nuggets at Lakers

How the Nuggets beat the Lakers

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
  2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint21.5% of Lakers shots come in the paint (7th most) and they make 48.8% (1st). The Nuggets defense there ranks 22nd (45.3% allowed).

How the Lakers beat the Nuggets

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
  2. AttackAttack the rimThe Lakers shoot 73.4% at the rim (1st), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).
  3. AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Nuggets allow 45.3% there (22nd of 30).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneDEN offenseLAL defenseLAL offenseDEN defense
At the rim66.7% (13th)70.5% (29th)73.4% (1st)69.1% (27th)
Paint48.4% (2nd)43.0% (9th)48.8% (1st)45.3% (22nd)
Midrange44.8% (3rd)44.7% (29th)44.4% (5th)40.4% (10th)
Corner 344.2% (1st)37.7% (8th)34.9% (29th)36.5% (4th)
Above-the-break 337.8% (1st)34.2% (10th)36.3% (6th)34.2% (11th)

Matchups on Wed, Dec 23

15 games
  • Pistons at Hawks7:00 PM ET

    How the Pistons beat the Hawks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Pistons play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    How the Hawks beat the Pistons

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Hawks play at 100.7 possessions per 48 minutes (7th in pace), the Pistons at 98.3 (18th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hornets at Magic7:00 PM ET

    How the Hornets beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Hornets play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Magic at 99.3 (12th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Magic beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Magic defense there ranks 7th (34.2% allowed).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Magic play at 99.3 possessions per 48 minutes (12th in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Cavaliers at Wizards7:00 PM ET

    How the Cavaliers beat the Wizards

    1. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Cavaliers defense there ranks 20th (42.4% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony DavisDavis (20.4 points per game): best in the paint (44% on 77 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (38%, league 42%).

    How the Wizards beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Wizards shoot 39.2% from the corners (10th), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Trail Blazers at Celtics7:30 PM ET

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Celtics

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Trail Blazers play at 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes (9th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Trail Blazers defense there ranks 14th (34.5% allowed).

    How the Celtics beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Trail Blazers at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th), and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at Nets7:30 PM ET

    How the Spurs beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.9% of Spurs shots come from the corners (1st most), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Michael Porter Jr.Porter (24.2 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 227 shots, league 66%), worst from the corners (32%, league 39%).

    How the Nets beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Nets play at 96.2 possessions per 48 minutes (25th in pace), the Spurs at 99.1 (13th). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at Heat7:30 PM ET

    How the Bulls beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).

    How the Heat beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Heat shoot 35.6% from above the break (9th), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Jazz at Knicks7:30 PM ET

    How the Jazz beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Jazz defense there ranks 21st (39.2% allowed).

    How the Knicks beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Knicks shoot 44.9% from midrange (2nd), and the Jazz allow 44.1% there (28th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Rockets at 76ers7:30 PM ET

    How the Rockets beat the 76ers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the 76ers at 98.8 (15th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the 76ers beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st) and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Raptors at Grizzlies8:00 PM ET

    How the Raptors beat the Grizzlies

    1. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Raptors defense there ranks 19th (44.5% allowed).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Raptors shoot 44.1% from midrange (6th), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).

    How the Grizzlies beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Grizzlies defense there ranks 24th (68.4% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Timberwolves at Bucks8:00 PM ET

    How the Timberwolves beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Timberwolves defense there ranks 26th (40.7% allowed).

    How the Bucks beat the Timberwolves

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Bucks shoot 42.9% from the corners (2nd), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Thunder at Pelicans8:00 PM ET

    How the Thunder beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).

    How the Pelicans beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Pelicans shoot 39.2% from the corners (9th), and the Thunder allow 39.9% there (24th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pacers at Suns9:00 PM ET

    How the Pacers beat the Suns

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Pacers play at 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes (8th in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).

    How the Suns beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack midrange11.7% of Suns shots come from midrange (6th most), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at Lakers10:00 PM ET

    How the Nuggets beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).

    How the Lakers beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Lakers shoot 73.4% at the rim (1st), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at Kings10:00 PM ET

    How the Mavericks beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Kings allow 43.7% there (27th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paint21.5% of Mavericks shots come in the paint (8th most), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).

    How the Kings beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at Clippers10:30 PM ET

    How the Warriors beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Clippers beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Clippers shoot 41.6% from the corners (5th), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.