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Game plans · Sunday, January 10

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Mavericks at Pelicans

How the Mavericks beat the Pelicans

  1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).
  3. AttackAttack the paint21.5% of Mavericks shots come in the paint (8th most), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).

How the Pelicans beat the Mavericks

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneDAL offenseNOP defenseNOP offenseDAL defense
At the rim64.6% (24th)66.7% (18th)62.8% (29th)66.2% (16th)
Paint45.4% (11th)47.9% (28th)38.0% (30th)45.5% (24th)
Midrange39.4% (24th)40.9% (12th)33.7% (30th)42.7% (23rd)
Corner 337.1% (25th)37.0% (5th)39.2% (9th)37.2% (6th)
Above-the-break 333.2% (28th)34.3% (12th)33.2% (26th)34.2% (9th)

Matchups on Sun, Jan 10

8 games
  • Spurs at Hawks3:00 PM ET

    How the Spurs beat the Hawks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    How the Hawks beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Jazz at Pistons6:00 PM ET

    How the Jazz beat the Pistons

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st) and the Jazz give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    How the Pistons beat the Jazz

    1. AttackAttack the rim36.0% of Pistons shots come at the rim (3rd most), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pelicans at Heat6:00 PM ET

    How the Pelicans beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Pelicans play at 99.5 possessions per 48 minutes (11th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Heat beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. AttackAttack the paint21.9% of Heat shots come in the paint (5th most), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Thunder at Magic6:00 PM ET

    How the Thunder beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Thunder shoot 46.1% in the paint (7th), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).

    How the Magic beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • 76ers at Raptors6:00 PM ET

    How the 76ers beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The 76ers defense there ranks 14th (65.4% allowed).

    How the Raptors beat the 76ers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at Grizzlies6:00 PM ET

    How the Mavericks beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Mavericks defense there ranks 24th (45.5% allowed).

    How the Grizzlies beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at Suns7:00 PM ET

    How the Bulls beat the Suns

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Bulls play at 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes (2nd in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. AttackAttack the rim36.1% of Bulls shots come at the rim (2nd most), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).

    How the Suns beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.9% of Suns shots come from above the break (4th most), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Suns play at 96.3 possessions per 48 minutes (24th in pace), the Bulls at 101.9 (2nd). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hornets at Kings9:00 PM ET

    How the Hornets beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Hornets defense there ranks 11th (43.8% allowed).

    How the Kings beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Kings defense there ranks 30th (37.6% allowed).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Kings play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.