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Game plans · Friday, January 30

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Bulls at Heat

How the Bulls beat the Heat

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).

How the Heat beat the Bulls

  1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Heat shoot 35.6% from above the break (9th), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneCHI offenseMIA defenseMIA offenseCHI defense
At the rim62.7% (30th)65.3% (11th)65.1% (20th)65.0% (8th)
Paint44.0% (18th)44.8% (20th)44.2% (17th)42.4% (6th)
Midrange41.0% (18th)39.5% (4th)37.8% (26th)43.1% (25th)
Corner 337.3% (22nd)39.0% (18th)37.6% (19th)37.4% (7th)
Above-the-break 334.9% (17th)34.7% (16th)35.6% (9th)36.6% (29th)

Matchups on Fri, Jan 30

9 games
  • Lakers at WizardsFinal

    How the Lakers beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Lakers shoot 73.4% at the rim (1st), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Lakers defense there ranks 29th (44.7% allowed).

    How the Wizards beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Raptors at MagicFinal

    How the Raptors beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Raptors shoot 67.7% at the rim (7th), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).

    How the Magic beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Magic defense there ranks 21st (67.5% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Kings at CelticsFinal

    How the Kings beat the Celtics

    1. AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Celtics allow 42.5% there (21st of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Kings defense there ranks 30th (37.6% allowed).

    How the Celtics beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Celtics shoot 70.5% at the rim (2nd), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Trail Blazers at KnicksFinal

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Trail Blazers defense there ranks 19th (39.0% allowed).

    How the Knicks beat the Trail Blazers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Knicks grab 29.3% of their misses (5th), and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Knicks play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Trail Blazers at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Grizzlies at PelicansFinal

    How the Grizzlies beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).

    How the Pelicans beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack the rim40.4% of Pelicans shots come at the rim (1st most), and the Grizzlies allow 68.4% there (24th of 30).
    2. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Pelicans grab 27.0% of their misses (8th), and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Cavaliers at SunsFinal

    How the Cavaliers beat the Suns

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Cavaliers play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).

    How the Suns beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.9% of Suns shots come from above the break (4th most), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Clippers at NuggetsFinal

    How the Clippers beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Clippers shoot 69.4% at the rim (3rd), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Nuggets shoot 37.8% from above the break (1st), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nets at JazzFinal

    How the Nets beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most) and they make 47.6% (5th). The Nets defense there ranks 25th (46.6% allowed).

    How the Jazz beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the corner 311.9% of Jazz shots come from the corners (7th most), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Nets allow 46.6% there (25th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pistons at WarriorsFinal

    How the Pistons beat the Warriors

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st), and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    How the Warriors beat the Pistons

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st) and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.