Skip to content
Courtside

Game plans · Saturday, February 28

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
at

Hornets at Celtics

How the Hornets beat the Celtics

  1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
  2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Hornets defense there ranks 17th (35.1% allowed).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Jayson TatumTatum (21.8 points per game): best from above the break (31% on 131 shots, league 35%), worst at the rim (62%, league 66%).

How the Celtics beat the Hornets

  1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Celtics defense there ranks 24th (35.7% allowed).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon MillerMiller (20.2 points per game): best from the corners (42% on 71 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (37%, league 42%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneCHA offenseBOS defenseBOS offenseCHA defense
At the rim64.8% (23rd)64.8% (7th)70.5% (2nd)65.1% (9th)
Paint42.8% (22nd)41.4% (4th)48.2% (3rd)43.8% (11th)
Midrange35.8% (29th)42.5% (21st)39.9% (21st)39.7% (6th)
Corner 342.8% (3rd)36.2% (2nd)41.8% (4th)38.8% (16th)
Above-the-break 336.3% (5th)35.7% (24th)35.6% (10th)35.1% (17th)

Matchups on Sat, Feb 28

5 games
  • Trail Blazers at HornetsFinal

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Trail Blazers defense there ranks 14th (34.5% allowed).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th) and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).

    How the Hornets beat the Trail Blazers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th), and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).
    2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Trail Blazers force turnovers on 13.0% of plays (7th) and the Hornets give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Rockets at HeatFinal

    How the Rockets beat the Heat

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).

    How the Heat beat the Rockets

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Rockets at 95.2 (29th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Raptors at WizardsFinal

    How the Raptors beat the Wizards

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th), and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Raptors shoot 67.7% at the rim (7th), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).

    How the Wizards beat the Raptors

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Lakers at WarriorsFinal

    How the Lakers beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Lakers shoot 44.4% from midrange (5th), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).

    How the Warriors beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pelicans at JazzFinal

    How the Pelicans beat the Jazz

    1. AttackAttack the rim40.4% of Pelicans shots come at the rim (1st most), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).

    How the Jazz beat the Pelicans

    1. AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).
    2. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.