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Game plans · Thursday, March 12

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Nets at Heat

How the Nets beat the Heat

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
  2. TempoSlow it downThe Nets play at 96.2 possessions per 48 minutes (25th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

How the Heat beat the Nets

  1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Nets at 96.2 (25th). Run and make them keep up.
  2. AttackAttack the paint21.9% of Heat shots come in the paint (5th most), and the Nets allow 46.6% there (25th of 30).
  3. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Heat shoot 35.6% from above the break (9th), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Michael Porter Jr.Porter (24.2 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 227 shots, league 66%), worst from the corners (32%, league 39%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneBKN offenseMIA defenseMIA offenseBKN defense
At the rim63.4% (27th)65.3% (11th)65.1% (20th)67.0% (19th)
Paint40.1% (27th)44.8% (20th)44.2% (17th)46.6% (25th)
Midrange36.8% (28th)39.5% (4th)37.8% (26th)41.2% (13th)
Corner 336.8% (26th)39.0% (18th)37.6% (19th)42.3% (30th)
Above-the-break 333.2% (27th)34.7% (16th)35.6% (9th)36.4% (28th)

Matchups on Thu, Mar 12

9 games
  • 76ers at PistonsFinal

    How the 76ers beat the Pistons

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd) and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    How the Pistons beat the 76ers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Suns at PacersFinal

    How the Suns beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack midrange11.7% of Suns shots come from midrange (6th most), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.

    How the Pacers beat the Suns

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Pacers play at 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes (8th in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Wizards at MagicFinal

    How the Wizards beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Wizards shoot 67.3% at the rim (9th), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).

    How the Magic beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the rim32.6% of Magic shots come at the rim (6th most), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Magic defense there ranks 18th (42.1% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nets at HawksFinal

    How the Nets beat the Hawks

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Hawks force turnovers on 13.2% of plays (6th) and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Nets play at 96.2 possessions per 48 minutes (25th in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Hawks beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Hawks shoot 36.4% from above the break (4th), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).
    2. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Hawks force turnovers on 13.2% of plays (6th), and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bucks at HeatFinal

    How the Bucks beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Bucks play at 96.8 possessions per 48 minutes (23rd in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Heat beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Heat defense there ranks 18th (39.0% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at GrizzliesFinal

    How the Mavericks beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Mavericks defense there ranks 24th (45.5% allowed).

    How the Grizzlies beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at SpursFinal

    How the Nuggets beat the Spurs

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    How the Spurs beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim32.3% of Spurs shots come at the rim (7th most), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at ThunderFinal

    How the Celtics beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).

    How the Thunder beat the Celtics

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Thunder shoot 48.1% from midrange (1st), and the Celtics allow 42.5% there (21st of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Thunder defense there ranks 23rd (35.6% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at LakersFinal

    How the Bulls beat the Lakers

    1. AttackAttack the rim36.1% of Bulls shots come at the rim (2nd most), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    How the Lakers beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Lakers shoot 36.3% from above the break (6th), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Lakers shoot 44.4% from midrange (5th), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.