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Last season (2025-26)

What changed?

Players whose game really moved: more minutes, a bigger role, a new shot diet. Each change comes with the likely reason and how much of it should hold.

The 2026-27 season does not have enough games yet, so this shows 2025-26: each player's last 25 games (or his games since a role change or a trade) against the rest of his season. Once players have about 20 games this season, the page switches to this season by itself.

Biggest real changes

279 of 393 players flagged

Showing 13 changes, biggest first (size after the "is it real?" pull). Clear filters

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · ATLProbably real
TS%+10.1 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 53 games before

Alexander-Walker's TS% is up 10.1 points over his last 25 games of the season (68.1% vs 58.0%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 7.9 points above what his shot spots predict (1.6 points below before), with Trae Young gone. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Shot-makingHis TS% was 7.9 points above what his shot spots predict (1.6 points below before) (about 93% of the change)
  • Teammate outTrae Young (28 MPG before) left the team
  • New teammateJonathan Kuminga joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 22.2 MPG

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Keaton WallaceG · ATLProbably real
Minutes-8.5

31 games since Dec 6 vs the 22 games before

Wallace's playing time is down 8.5 minutes a game over his 31 games since Dec 6 (6.5 vs 15.1). The likely reason: CJ McCollum joined the rotation on Jan 11 and played 28.8 MPG. Probably real: about 75% should hold.

  • New teammateCJ McCollum joined the rotation on Jan 11 and played 28.8 MPG

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Dyson DanielsG · ATLProbably real
TS%+7.9 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 51 games before

Daniels's TS% is up 7.9 points over his last 25 games of the season (59.6% vs 51.7%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 0.7 points above what his shot spots predict (6.0 points below before), with Trae Young gone. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

  • Shot-makingHis TS% was 0.7 points above what his shot spots predict (6.0 points below before) (about 85% of the change)
  • Teammate outTrae Young (28 MPG before) left the team
  • New teammateJonathan Kuminga joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 22.2 MPG

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Zaccharie RisacherF · ATLProbably real
Minutes-7.8

14 games since Mar 16 vs the 53 games before

Risacher's playing time is down 7.8 minutes a game over his 14 games since Mar 16 (16.3 vs 24.0). Much of it is the starting role change: he started 1 of 14 games, down from 45 of 53. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

  • Starting roleHe started 1 of 14 games, down from 45 of 53 (about 58% of the change)

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Mouhamed GueyeF · ATLProbably real
3-point rate+12 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 52 games before

Gueye's 3-point rate is up 12 points over his last 25 games of the season (54% vs 42%). The likely reason: Trae Young (28 MPG before) left the team. Also a new teammate: Jonathan Kuminga joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 22.2 MPG. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Teammate outTrae Young (28 MPG before) left the team
  • New teammateJonathan Kuminga joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 22.2 MPG

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Mouhamed GueyeF · ATLProbably real
Above-the-break 3 share+12 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 52 games before

Gueye's above-the-break 3 share is up 12 points over his last 25 games of the season (23% vs 12%). The likely reason: Trae Young (28 MPG before) left the team. Also a new teammate: Jonathan Kuminga joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 22.2 MPG. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

  • Teammate outTrae Young (28 MPG before) left the team
  • New teammateJonathan Kuminga joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 22.2 MPG

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Keaton WallaceG · ATLProbably real
Usage+5.8 pts

31 games since Dec 6 vs the 22 games before

Wallace's usage is up 5.8 points over his 31 games since Dec 6 (19.9% vs 14.1%). The likely reason: Trae Young (28 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

  • Teammate outTrae Young (28 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out

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Gabe VincentG · ATLProbably real
Minutes-6.0

24 games with ATL vs the 29 games before

Vincent's playing time is down 6.0 minutes a game over his 24 games with ATL (13.2 vs 19.2). The likely reason: he moved from LAL to ATL (first game Feb 9). Probably real: about 75% should hold.

  • New teamHe moved from LAL to ATL (first game Feb 9)

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Keaton WallaceG · ATLProbably real
Midrange share+11 pts

31 games since Dec 6 vs the 22 games before

Wallace's midrange share is up 11 points over his 31 games since Dec 6 (16% vs 5%). The likely reason: Trae Young (28 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: CJ McCollum joined the rotation on Jan 11 and played 28.8 MPG. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

  • Teammate outTrae Young (28 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
  • New teammateCJ McCollum joined the rotation on Jan 11 and played 28.8 MPG

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Buddy HieldG · ATLProbably real
Minutes-5.7

25 games since Dec 14 vs the 26 games before

Hield's playing time is down 5.7 minutes a game over his 25 games since Dec 14 (13.2 vs 18.9). The likely reason: CJ McCollum joined the rotation on Jan 11 and played 28.8 MPG. Probably real: about 75% should hold.

  • New teammateCJ McCollum joined the rotation on Jan 11 and played 28.8 MPG

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Jock LandaleC · ATLPartly real
Corner-3 share+11 pts

23 games with ATL vs the 45 games before

Landale's corner-3 share is up 11 points over his 23 games with ATL (18% vs 7%). The likely reason: he moved from MEM to ATL (first game Feb 5). Also the starting role change: he started 2 of 23 games, down from 25 of 45. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

  • New teamHe moved from MEM to ATL (first game Feb 5)
  • Starting roleHe started 2 of 23 games, down from 25 of 45

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Keaton WallaceG · ATLProbably real
3-point rate-8 pts

31 games since Dec 6 vs the 22 games before

Wallace's 3-point rate is down 8 points over his 31 games since Dec 6 (55% vs 64%). The likely reason: Trae Young (28 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: CJ McCollum joined the rotation on Jan 11 and played 28.8 MPG. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

  • Teammate outTrae Young (28 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
  • New teammateCJ McCollum joined the rotation on Jan 11 and played 28.8 MPG

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Jonathan KumingaF · ATLPartly real
3-point rate+9 pts

16 games with ATL vs the 20 games before

Kuminga's 3-point rate is up 9 points over his 16 games with ATL (36% vs 27%). The likely reason: he moved from GSW to ATL (first game Feb 24). Also the starting role change: he started 1 of 16 games, down from 13 of 20. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

  • New teamHe moved from GSW to ATL (first game Feb 24)
  • Starting roleHe started 1 of 16 games, down from 13 of 20

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How this works

Windows

Every night we split each player's regular season (8+ games on each side) in one of three ways, in this order: the day he joined a new team; the game after which his minutes and usage shifted the most (a simple two-part split); or, if neither moved much, his last 10 games. Until the new season has enough games (about 20 each for most players) we use last season and its last 25 games, which catches the roles that changed at the trade deadline.

Is it big?

A change counts as big when it reaches:

  • Points: 4 points a game
  • Minutes: 5 minutes a game
  • Usage: 4 points
  • TS%: 4 points
  • 3P%: 5 points
  • 3-point rate: 8 points
  • Rim share: 8 points
  • Midrange share: 8 points
  • Corner-3 share: 8 points
  • Above-the-break 3 share: 8 points
  • Assists: 2 assists a game
  • Rebounds: 2.5 rebounds a game

Players need 15+ minutes a game on one side. Shooting needs 40+ threes or 60+ shots on each side.

Is it real?

Both windows are pulled toward the player's whole season by a fixed amount of weight M, the sample size where a stat is half skill and half luck: (window x n + season x M) / (n + M). A change is shown only if the pulled gap keeps at least half of the raw gap: Probably real keeps 60% or more, Partly real keeps 50 to 59%, anything less is Mostly noise and stays off the feed.

M values: 3P% 501 threes, TS% 218 shots and points 9.7 games, from Is it real?; minutes 9.4, usage 17, assists 18.9, rebounds 18.1, 3-point rate 13.9, rim share 18.2, midrange 16.8, corner 3 21.6 and above the break 15.4 games, measured on 1,766 pairs of back-to-back 10-game stretches in 2025-26. That is why 3P% changes almost never make it: threes are mostly luck until a player has taken hundreds.

Causes

Rules, each with a number. Points split exactly into minutes, shot volume and efficiency. Assists and rebounds split into minutes and per-minute rate. TS% and 3P% split into shot diet (league FG% from the spots he shot from) and shot-making (the rest). Context: a new team, a move into or out of the starting five (starting lineups from our stint data), key teammates (25+ minutes before) who missed most of the window, a new rotation player (20+ minutes), and opponents' defensive rating. We keep causes that explain 15%+ of the change and show the top three.

What we measured

Backtest on 2025-26: we ran this as if the season stopped on 3 dates and checked each flag against the rest of the season. Probably real changes kept 71% of their size on average (we predicted 66%) and 88% kept going the same way (301 flags). Partly real kept 60% (predicted 55%). Mostly noise kept 39% (predicted 33%), so the pull is a little cautious, which is the safe side.

Latest run: 393 players checked, 447 probably real and 180 partly real changes, and 273 big swings left out as mostly noise.

What it cannot see

Injuries a player played through, coaching decisions, matchups and schemes, and anything off the box score. Missing teammates are read from who played, not the injury report. Causes are rough splits, not proof; when nothing in our data fits we say so.