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Game plans · Saturday, January 24

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Spurs at Rockets

How the Spurs beat the Rockets

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
  2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Spurs defense there ranks 7th (42.5% allowed).
  3. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Durant, Sengun, Smith, Thompson and Sheppard share the floor (272 min), they allow 123.1 per 100, against 114.2 for the team: attack it.
  4. TempoPush the paceThe Spurs play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Rockets at 95.2 (29th). Run and make them keep up.

How the Rockets beat the Spurs

  1. AttackAttack midrange12.8% of Rockets shots come from midrange (2nd most), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
  3. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Spurs at 99.1 (13th). Make it a half-court game.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneSAS offenseHOU defenseHOU offenseSAS defense
At the rim67.1% (12th)65.3% (12th)65.8% (16th)62.7% (5th)
Paint45.7% (10th)44.1% (15th)47.2% (6th)42.5% (7th)
Midrange43.6% (7th)39.1% (2nd)40.2% (20th)42.5% (22nd)
Corner 338.9% (12th)38.5% (12th)37.3% (21st)34.6% (1st)
Above-the-break 334.4% (20th)34.1% (6th)36.1% (7th)35.4% (19th)

Matchups on Sat, Jan 24

6 games
  • Wizards at HornetsFinal

    How the Wizards beat the Hornets

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th) and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Wizards defense there ranks 20th (35.5% allowed).

    How the Hornets beat the Wizards

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th), and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Hornets shoot 42.8% from the corners (3rd), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Knicks at 76ersFinal

    How the Knicks beat the 76ers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Knicks grab 29.3% of their misses (5th), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Knicks play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the 76ers at 98.8 (15th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the 76ers beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The 76ers defense there ranks 20th (39.1% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Cavaliers at MagicFinal

    How the Cavaliers beat the Magic

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Cavaliers shoot 47.8% in the paint (4th), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).

    How the Magic beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at BullsFinal

    How the Celtics beat the Bulls

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Bulls at 101.9 (2nd). Make it a half-court game.
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).

    How the Bulls beat the Celtics

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Bulls play at 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes (2nd in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Bulls defense there ranks 29th (36.6% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Lakers at MavericksFinal

    How the Lakers beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Lakers shoot 44.4% from midrange (5th), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).

    How the Mavericks beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Heat at JazzFinal

    How the Heat beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the paint21.9% of Heat shots come in the paint (5th most), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).

    How the Jazz beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.