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Game plans · Saturday, January 23

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
at

Kings at Lakers

How the Kings beat the Lakers

  1. AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
  3. AttackAttack the rimThe Kings shoot 68.2% at the rim (6th), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).
  4. Take awayTake away the paint21.5% of Lakers shots come in the paint (7th most) and they make 48.8% (1st). The Kings defense there ranks 29th (48.7% allowed).

How the Lakers beat the Kings

  1. AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack the rimThe Lakers shoot 73.4% at the rim (1st), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
  3. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Lakers shoot 36.3% from above the break (6th), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
  4. AttackAttack midrangeThe Lakers shoot 44.4% from midrange (5th), and the Kings allow 43.7% there (27th of 30).
  5. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Lakers defense there ranks 9th (43.0% allowed).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneSAC offenseLAL defenseLAL offenseSAC defense
At the rim68.2% (6th)70.5% (29th)73.4% (1st)69.8% (28th)
Paint45.7% (9th)43.0% (9th)48.8% (1st)48.7% (29th)
Midrange41.8% (16th)44.7% (29th)44.4% (5th)43.7% (27th)
Corner 335.1% (28th)37.7% (8th)34.9% (29th)39.0% (17th)
Above-the-break 333.7% (25th)34.2% (10th)36.3% (6th)37.6% (30th)

Matchups on Sat, Jan 23

6 games
  • 76ers at Bulls5:00 PM ET

    How the 76ers beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe 76ers shoot 43.0% from midrange (9th), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    How the Bulls beat the 76ers

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Bulls play at 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes (2nd in pace), the 76ers at 98.8 (15th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Raptors at Nets6:00 PM ET

    How the Raptors beat the Nets

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th), and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Michael Porter Jr.Porter (24.2 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 227 shots, league 66%), worst from the corners (32%, league 39%).

    How the Nets beat the Raptors

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hornets at Celtics7:00 PM ET

    How the Hornets beat the Celtics

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Hornets defense there ranks 17th (35.1% allowed).

    How the Celtics beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Celtics defense there ranks 24th (35.7% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon MillerMiller (20.2 points per game): best from the corners (42% on 71 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (37%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hawks at Heat8:00 PM ET

    How the Hawks beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Hawks play at 100.7 possessions per 48 minutes (7th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Heat beat the Hawks

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Cavaliers at Mavericks8:00 PM ET

    How the Cavaliers beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Cavaliers shoot 47.8% in the paint (4th), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Cavaliers shoot 44.5% from midrange (4th), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).

    How the Mavericks beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Mavericks play at 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes (4th in pace), the Cavaliers at 99.1 (13th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bucks at Nuggets9:00 PM ET

    How the Bucks beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Bucks shoot 68.7% at the rim (5th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Bucks

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Bucks allow 41.1% there (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.