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Game plans · Thursday, January 14

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Kings at Trail Blazers

How the Kings beat the Trail Blazers

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

How the Trail Blazers beat the Kings

  1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.6% of Trail Blazers shots come from above the break (5th most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack the rim33.5% of Trail Blazers shots come at the rim (4th most), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Trail Blazers defense there ranks 16th (44.1% allowed).
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Zach LaVineLaVine (19.2 points per game): best from the corners (45% on 55 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%). 37% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneSAC offensePOR defensePOR offenseSAC defense
At the rim68.2% (6th)65.3% (13th)64.9% (22nd)69.8% (28th)
Paint45.7% (9th)44.1% (16th)38.7% (29th)48.7% (29th)
Midrange41.8% (16th)42.1% (19th)37.5% (27th)43.7% (27th)
Corner 335.1% (28th)39.0% (19th)34.4% (30th)39.0% (17th)
Above-the-break 333.7% (25th)34.5% (14th)34.2% (21st)37.6% (30th)

Matchups on Thu, Jan 14

9 games
  • Pelicans at Spurs2:00 PM ET

    How the Pelicans beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    How the Spurs beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at Pistons7:00 PM ET

    How the Mavericks beat the Pistons

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Mavericks play at 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes (4th in pace), the Pistons at 98.3 (18th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Pistons beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack the paint20.8% of Pistons shots come in the paint (10th most), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Pistons play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nets at 76ers7:00 PM ET

    How the Nets beat the 76ers

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe 76ers force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th) and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Nets play at 96.2 possessions per 48 minutes (25th in pace), the 76ers at 98.8 (15th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the 76ers beat the Nets

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe 76ers force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th), and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Michael Porter Jr.Porter (24.2 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 227 shots, league 66%), worst from the corners (32%, league 39%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Heat at Knicks7:30 PM ET

    How the Heat beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Knicks at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Knicks beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Knicks play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Timberwolves at Bulls8:00 PM ET

    How the Timberwolves beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Timberwolves shoot 36.5% from above the break (3rd), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    How the Bulls beat the Timberwolves

    1. AttackAttack the corner 312.0% of Bulls shots come from the corners (6th most), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Grizzlies at Nuggets9:00 PM ET

    How the Grizzlies beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Nuggets allow 45.3% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Grizzlies allow 39.6% there (23rd of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hornets at Jazz9:00 PM ET

    How the Hornets beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most), and the Jazz allow 36.4% there (27th of 30).

    How the Jazz beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Jazz defense there ranks 27th (36.4% allowed).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Jazz play at 101.6 possessions per 48 minutes (3rd in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Magic at Lakers10:00 PM ET

    How the Magic beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim32.6% of Magic shots come at the rim (6th most), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).

    How the Lakers beat the Magic

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Lakers shoot 73.4% at the rim (1st), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Clippers at Kings10:00 PM ET

    How the Clippers beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Clippers shoot 69.4% at the rim (3rd), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paint21.5% of Clippers shots come in the paint (6th most), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).

    How the Kings beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Kings play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.