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Game plans

Wednesday, April 15

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Kings at Mavericks

How the Kings beat the Mavericks

  1. AttackAttack the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).
  3. TempoSlow it downThe Kings play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

How the Mavericks beat the Kings

  1. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Kings allow 43.7% there (27th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack the paint21.5% of Mavericks shots come in the paint (8th most), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Mavericks defense there ranks 24th (45.5% allowed).
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Zach LaVineLaVine (19.2 points per game): best from the corners (45% on 55 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%). 37% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
  5. TempoPush the paceThe Mavericks play at 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes (4th in pace), the Kings at 98.5 (16th). Run and make them keep up.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneSAC offenseDAL defenseDAL offenseSAC defense
At the rim68.2% (6th)66.2% (16th)64.6% (24th)69.8% (28th)
Paint45.7% (9th)45.5% (24th)45.4% (11th)48.7% (29th)
Midrange41.8% (16th)42.7% (23rd)39.4% (24th)43.7% (27th)
Corner 335.1% (28th)37.2% (6th)37.1% (25th)39.0% (17th)
Above-the-break 333.7% (25th)34.2% (9th)33.2% (28th)37.6% (30th)

02Matchups on Wed, Apr 15

2 games
  • Magic at 76ersFinal

    How the Magic beat the 76ers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    How the 76ers beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim33.4% of 76ers shots come at the rim (5th most), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at ClippersFinal

    How the Warriors beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Clippers beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Clippers shoot 41.6% from the corners (5th), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.