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Game plans

Friday, March 20

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Trail Blazers at Timberwolves

How the Trail Blazers beat the Timberwolves

  1. AttackAttack the corner 312.2% of Trail Blazers shots come from the corners (5th most), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

How the Timberwolves beat the Trail Blazers

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZonePOR offenseMIN defenseMIN offensePOR defense
At the rim64.9% (22nd)62.4% (3rd)67.4% (8th)65.3% (13th)
Paint38.7% (29th)42.9% (8th)44.2% (16th)44.1% (16th)
Midrange37.5% (27th)40.0% (9th)42.1% (14th)42.1% (19th)
Corner 334.4% (30th)40.7% (26th)38.5% (14th)39.0% (19th)
Above-the-break 334.2% (21st)33.9% (4th)36.5% (3rd)34.5% (14th)

02Matchups on Fri, Mar 20

6 games
  • Knicks at NetsFinal

    How the Knicks beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Michael Porter Jr.Porter (24.2 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 227 shots, league 66%), worst from the corners (32%, league 39%).

    How the Nets beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Nets defense there ranks 30th (42.3% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at PistonsFinal

    How the Warriors beat the Pistons

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st) and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    How the Pistons beat the Warriors

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st), and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hawks at RocketsFinal

    How the Hawks beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Hawks defense there ranks 18th (44.2% allowed).

    How the Rockets beat the Hawks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at GrizzliesFinal

    How the Celtics beat the Grizzlies

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Grizzlies at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th), and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).

    How the Grizzlies beat the Celtics

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Grizzlies play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th) and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Trail Blazers at TimberwolvesFinal

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Timberwolves

    1. AttackAttack the corner 312.2% of Trail Blazers shots come from the corners (5th most), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    How the Timberwolves beat the Trail Blazers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Raptors at NuggetsFinal

    How the Raptors beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Raptors shoot 67.7% at the rim (7th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Nuggets defense there ranks 27th (69.1% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.