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Game plans · Tuesday, November 18

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Trail Blazers at Thunder

How the Trail Blazers beat the Thunder

  1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd) and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
  3. AttackAttack the corner 312.2% of Trail Blazers shots come from the corners (5th most), and the Thunder allow 39.9% there (24th of 30).
  4. AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.6% of Trail Blazers shots come from above the break (5th most), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).

How the Thunder beat the Trail Blazers

  1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd), and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZonePOR offenseOKC defenseOKC offensePOR defense
At the rim64.9% (22nd)60.1% (1st)67.2% (10th)65.3% (13th)
Paint38.7% (29th)39.9% (1st)46.1% (7th)44.1% (16th)
Midrange37.5% (27th)38.0% (1st)48.1% (1st)42.1% (19th)
Corner 334.4% (30th)39.9% (24th)38.1% (17th)39.0% (19th)
Above-the-break 334.2% (21st)35.6% (23rd)35.9% (8th)34.5% (14th)

Matchups on Tue, Nov 18

6 games
  • Warriors at MagicFinal

    How the Warriors beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).

    How the Magic beat the Warriors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most) and they make 39.5% (8th). The Magic defense there ranks 13th (38.5% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at NetsFinal

    How the Celtics beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Celtics shoot 41.8% from the corners (4th), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).

    How the Nets beat the Celtics

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Nets defense there ranks 28th (36.4% allowed).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.9% of Nets shots come from above the break (6th most), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pistons at HawksFinal

    How the Pistons beat the Hawks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Pistons play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    How the Hawks beat the Pistons

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Hawks play at 100.7 possessions per 48 minutes (7th in pace), the Pistons at 98.3 (18th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Grizzlies at SpursFinal

    How the Grizzlies beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    How the Spurs beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.9% of Spurs shots come from the corners (1st most), and the Grizzlies allow 39.6% there (23rd of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Spurs defense there ranks 7th (42.5% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Jazz at LakersFinal

    How the Jazz beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint21.5% of Lakers shots come in the paint (7th most) and they make 48.8% (1st). The Jazz defense there ranks 30th (48.8% allowed).

    How the Lakers beat the Jazz

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Lakers shoot 73.4% at the rim (1st), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Suns at Trail BlazersFinal

    How the Suns beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd), and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd) and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Suns

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd) and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
    2. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd), and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.