Game plans
Tuesday, October 27
How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.
01Plan any matchup
76ers at Cavaliers
How the 76ers beat the Cavaliers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
How the Cavaliers beat the 76ers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).
| Zone | PHI offense | CLE defense | CLE offense | PHI defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 63.3% (28th) | 62.6% (4th) | 67.2% (11th) | 65.4% (14th) |
| Paint | 40.7% (25th) | 44.0% (13th) | 47.8% (4th) | 42.4% (5th) |
| Midrange | 43.0% (9th) | 42.4% (20th) | 44.5% (4th) | 40.7% (11th) |
| Corner 3 | 37.2% (24th) | 40.1% (25th) | 37.6% (18th) | 39.1% (20th) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 34.2% (22nd) | 36.1% (25th) | 35.4% (11th) | 33.8% (3rd) |
02Matchups on Tue, Oct 27
- Nets at Celtics
How the Nets beat the Celtics
- Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Nets defense there ranks 28th (36.4% allowed).
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.9% of Nets shots come from above the break (6th most), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
How the Celtics beat the Nets
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).
- AttackAttack the corner 3The Celtics shoot 41.8% from the corners (4th), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
- Pistons at Knicks
How the Pistons beat the Knicks
- TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
- Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Pistons defense there ranks 11th (38.5% allowed).
How the Knicks beat the Pistons
- Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
- TempoSlow it downThe Knicks play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Pistons at 98.3 (18th). Make it a half-court game.
- Kings at Spurs
How the Kings beat the Spurs
- AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
How the Spurs beat the Kings
- AttackAttack the rim32.3% of Spurs shots come at the rim (7th most), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
- Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Spurs defense there ranks 7th (42.5% allowed).
- Trail Blazers at Lakers
How the Trail Blazers beat the Lakers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
- AttackAttack the rim33.5% of Trail Blazers shots come at the rim (4th most), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).
How the Lakers beat the Trail Blazers
- TempoSlow it downThe Lakers play at 97.6 possessions per 48 minutes (21st in pace), the Trail Blazers at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.
- Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.