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Game plans · Saturday, January 31

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Magic at Cavaliers

How the Magic beat the Cavaliers

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

How the Cavaliers beat the Magic

  1. AttackAttack the paintThe Cavaliers shoot 47.8% in the paint (4th), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneORL offenseCLE defenseCLE offenseORL defense
At the rim65.4% (19th)62.6% (4th)67.2% (11th)67.5% (21st)
Paint40.3% (26th)44.0% (13th)47.8% (4th)45.3% (23rd)
Midrange43.0% (10th)42.4% (20th)44.5% (4th)42.1% (18th)
Corner 338.4% (15th)40.1% (25th)37.6% (18th)38.5% (13th)
Above-the-break 332.6% (30th)36.1% (25th)35.4% (11th)34.2% (7th)

Matchups on Sat, Jan 31

6 games
  • Spurs at HornetsFinal

    How the Spurs beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Spurs defense there ranks 19th (35.4% allowed).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Spurs play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Hornets beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Hornets play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Spurs at 99.1 (13th). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hawks at PacersFinal

    How the Hawks beat the Pacers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the corner 311.7% of Hawks shots come from the corners (8th most), and the Pacers allow 39.4% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Pacers beat the Hawks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pelicans at 76ersFinal

    How the Pelicans beat the 76ers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Pelicans grab 27.0% of their misses (8th), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    How the 76ers beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at HeatFinal

    How the Bulls beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).

    How the Heat beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Heat shoot 35.6% from above the break (9th), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Timberwolves at GrizzliesFinal

    How the Timberwolves beat the Grizzlies

    1. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Timberwolves defense there ranks 8th (42.9% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Ty JeromeJerome (19.7 points per game): best in the paint (53% on 64 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%). 40% on the left side, 47% on the right; push him left.

    How the Grizzlies beat the Timberwolves

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at RocketsFinal

    How the Mavericks beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Mavericks play at 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes (4th in pace), the Rockets at 95.2 (29th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Rockets beat the Mavericks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. AttackAttack the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.