Game plans · Tuesday, December 22
How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.
Plan any matchup
Thunder at Hornets
How the Thunder beat the Hornets
- Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Thunder defense there ranks 23rd (35.6% allowed).
- TurnoversPressure the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd), and the Hornets give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).
- TempoPush the paceThe Thunder play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.
- Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon MillerMiller (20.2 points per game): best from the corners (42% on 71 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (37%, league 42%).
How the Hornets beat the Thunder
- Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd) and the Hornets give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).
- AttackAttack the corner 3The Hornets shoot 42.8% from the corners (3rd), and the Thunder allow 39.9% there (24th of 30).
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).
- TempoSlow it downThe Hornets play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Thunder at 98.5 (16th). Make it a half-court game.
| Zone | OKC offense | CHA defense | CHA offense | OKC defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 67.2% (10th) | 65.1% (9th) | 64.8% (23rd) | 60.1% (1st) |
| Paint | 46.1% (7th) | 43.8% (11th) | 42.8% (22nd) | 39.9% (1st) |
| Midrange | 48.1% (1st) | 39.7% (6th) | 35.8% (29th) | 38.0% (1st) |
| Corner 3 | 38.1% (17th) | 38.8% (16th) | 42.8% (3rd) | 39.9% (24th) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 35.9% (8th) | 35.1% (17th) | 36.3% (5th) | 35.6% (23rd) |
Matchups on Tue, Dec 22
- Raptors at Wizards
How the Raptors beat the Wizards
- TurnoversPressure the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th), and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
- AttackAttack the rimThe Raptors shoot 67.7% at the rim (7th), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).
How the Wizards beat the Raptors
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
- Pistons at Thunder
How the Pistons beat the Thunder
- Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
How the Thunder beat the Pistons
- Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
- Mavericks at Warriors
How the Mavericks beat the Warriors
- AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).
How the Warriors beat the Mavericks
- TempoSlow it downThe Warriors play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.
- Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.