Game plans
Thursday, October 29
How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.
01Plan any matchup
Thunder at Rockets
How the Thunder beat the Rockets
- Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
- Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Thunder defense there ranks 1st (39.9% allowed).
- TargetTarget this lineupWhen Durant, Sengun, Smith, Thompson and Sheppard share the floor (272 min), they allow 123.1 per 100, against 114.2 for the team: attack it.
- TempoPush the paceThe Thunder play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Rockets at 95.2 (29th). Run and make them keep up.
How the Rockets beat the Thunder
- Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Rockets shoot 36.1% from above the break (7th), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).
- TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Thunder at 98.5 (16th). Make it a half-court game.
| Zone | OKC offense | HOU defense | HOU offense | OKC defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 67.2% (10th) | 65.3% (12th) | 65.8% (16th) | 60.1% (1st) |
| Paint | 46.1% (7th) | 44.1% (15th) | 47.2% (6th) | 39.9% (1st) |
| Midrange | 48.1% (1st) | 39.1% (2nd) | 40.2% (20th) | 38.0% (1st) |
| Corner 3 | 38.1% (17th) | 38.5% (12th) | 37.3% (21st) | 39.9% (24th) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 35.9% (8th) | 34.1% (6th) | 36.1% (7th) | 35.6% (23rd) |
02Matchups on Thu, Oct 29
- Cavaliers at Hawks
How the Cavaliers beat the Hawks
- Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).
How the Hawks beat the Cavaliers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Hawks shoot 36.4% from above the break (4th), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).
- Kings at Pelicans
How the Kings beat the Pelicans
- AttackAttack the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).
- TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
How the Pelicans beat the Kings
- AttackAttack the rim40.4% of Pelicans shots come at the rim (1st most), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
- Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Pelicans defense there ranks 28th (47.9% allowed).
- Grizzlies at Trail Blazers
How the Grizzlies beat the Trail Blazers
- GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd) and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
- TurnoversPressure the ballThe Grizzlies force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th), and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
How the Trail Blazers beat the Grizzlies
- GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd), and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Grizzlies force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th) and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.