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Game plans · Thursday, January 22

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Pelicans at Spurs

How the Pelicans beat the Spurs

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

How the Spurs beat the Pelicans

  1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).
  3. AttackAttack the paintThe Spurs shoot 45.7% in the paint (10th), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneNOP offenseSAS defenseSAS offenseNOP defense
At the rim62.8% (29th)62.7% (5th)67.1% (12th)66.7% (18th)
Paint38.0% (30th)42.5% (7th)45.7% (10th)47.9% (28th)
Midrange33.7% (30th)42.5% (22nd)43.6% (7th)40.9% (12th)
Corner 339.2% (9th)34.6% (1st)38.9% (12th)37.0% (5th)
Above-the-break 333.2% (26th)35.4% (19th)34.4% (20th)34.3% (12th)

Matchups on Thu, Jan 22

8 games
  • Hornets at MagicFinal

    How the Hornets beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Hornets play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Magic at 99.3 (12th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Magic beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Magic defense there ranks 7th (34.2% allowed).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Magic play at 99.3 possessions per 48 minutes (12th in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Rockets at 76ersFinal

    How the Rockets beat the 76ers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the 76ers at 98.8 (15th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the 76ers beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st) and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at WizardsFinal

    How the Nuggets beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Nuggets defense there ranks 10th (40.4% allowed).

    How the Wizards beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Wizards shoot 67.3% at the rim (9th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at MavericksFinal

    How the Warriors beat the Mavericks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Warriors play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

    How the Mavericks beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at TimberwolvesFinal

    How the Bulls beat the Timberwolves

    1. AttackAttack the corner 312.0% of Bulls shots come from the corners (6th most), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    How the Timberwolves beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Timberwolves shoot 36.5% from above the break (3rd), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at JazzFinal

    How the Spurs beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim32.3% of Spurs shots come at the rim (7th most), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).

    How the Jazz beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Jazz play at 101.6 possessions per 48 minutes (3rd in pace), the Spurs at 99.1 (13th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Lakers at ClippersFinal

    How the Lakers beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Lakers shoot 36.3% from above the break (6th), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Clippers beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Clippers shoot 69.4% at the rim (3rd), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Heat at Trail BlazersFinal

    How the Heat beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Trail Blazers at 99.8 (9th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Trail Blazers play at 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes (9th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.