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Game plans · Wednesday, April 15

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Timberwolves at Celtics

How the Timberwolves beat the Celtics

  1. TempoPush the paceThe Timberwolves play at 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes (9th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
  2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Timberwolves shoot 36.5% from above the break (3rd), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
  3. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Timberwolves defense there ranks 4th (33.9% allowed).
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Jayson TatumTatum (21.8 points per game): best from above the break (31% on 131 shots, league 35%), worst at the rim (62%, league 66%).

How the Celtics beat the Timberwolves

  1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Timberwolves at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.
  2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Celtics shoot 41.8% from the corners (4th), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneMIN offenseBOS defenseBOS offenseMIN defense
At the rim67.4% (8th)64.8% (7th)70.5% (2nd)62.4% (3rd)
Paint44.2% (16th)41.4% (4th)48.2% (3rd)42.9% (8th)
Midrange42.1% (14th)42.5% (21st)39.9% (21st)40.0% (9th)
Corner 338.5% (14th)36.2% (2nd)41.8% (4th)40.7% (26th)
Above-the-break 336.5% (3rd)35.7% (24th)35.6% (10th)33.9% (4th)

Matchups on Wed, Apr 15

2 games
  • Magic at 76ersFinal

    How the Magic beat the 76ers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    How the 76ers beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim33.4% of 76ers shots come at the rim (5th most), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at ClippersFinal

    How the Warriors beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Clippers beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Clippers shoot 41.6% from the corners (5th), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.