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Game plans · Saturday, March 14

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
at

Timberwolves at Cavaliers

How the Timberwolves beat the Cavaliers

  1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Timberwolves shoot 36.5% from above the break (3rd), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

How the Cavaliers beat the Timberwolves

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneMIN offenseCLE defenseCLE offenseMIN defense
At the rim67.4% (8th)62.6% (4th)67.2% (11th)62.4% (3rd)
Paint44.2% (16th)44.0% (13th)47.8% (4th)42.9% (8th)
Midrange42.1% (14th)42.4% (20th)44.5% (4th)40.0% (9th)
Corner 338.5% (14th)40.1% (25th)37.6% (18th)40.7% (26th)
Above-the-break 336.5% (3rd)36.1% (25th)35.4% (11th)33.9% (4th)

Matchups on Sat, Mar 14

7 games
  • Nets at 76ersFinal

    How the Nets beat the 76ers

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe 76ers force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th) and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Nets play at 96.2 possessions per 48 minutes (25th in pace), the 76ers at 98.8 (15th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the 76ers beat the Nets

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe 76ers force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th), and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Michael Porter Jr.Porter (24.2 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 227 shots, league 66%), worst from the corners (32%, league 39%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bucks at HawksFinal

    How the Bucks beat the Hawks

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Hawks force turnovers on 13.2% of plays (6th) and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Bucks play at 96.8 possessions per 48 minutes (23rd in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Hawks beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Hawks defense there ranks 10th (38.1% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hornets at SpursFinal

    How the Hornets beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Hornets play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Spurs at 99.1 (13th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Spurs beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Spurs defense there ranks 19th (35.4% allowed).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Spurs play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Wizards at CelticsFinal

    How the Wizards beat the Celtics

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Wizards play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th) and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).

    How the Celtics beat the Wizards

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Wizards at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Celtics shoot 70.5% at the rim (2nd), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Magic at HeatFinal

    How the Magic beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Magic play at 99.3 possessions per 48 minutes (12th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Heat beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. AttackAttack the paint21.9% of Heat shots come in the paint (5th most), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at LakersFinal

    How the Nuggets beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).

    How the Lakers beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Lakers shoot 73.4% at the rim (1st), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Kings at ClippersFinal

    How the Kings beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Kings play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Clippers beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Clippers shoot 69.4% at the rim (3rd), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paint21.5% of Clippers shots come in the paint (6th most), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.