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Game plans · Friday, December 25

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Bucks at Magic

How the Bucks beat the Magic

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
  2. AttackAttack the rimThe Bucks shoot 68.7% at the rim (5th), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).
  3. TempoSlow it downThe Bucks play at 96.8 possessions per 48 minutes (23rd in pace), the Magic at 99.3 (12th). Make it a half-court game.

How the Magic beat the Bucks

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
  2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Magic defense there ranks 13th (38.5% allowed).
  3. AttackAttack the rim32.6% of Magic shots come at the rim (6th most), and the Bucks allow 68.5% there (25th of 30).
  4. TempoPush the paceThe Magic play at 99.3 possessions per 48 minutes (12th in pace), the Bucks at 96.8 (23rd). Run and make them keep up.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneMIL offenseORL defenseORL offenseMIL defense
At the rim68.7% (5th)67.5% (21st)65.4% (19th)68.5% (25th)
Paint42.7% (23rd)45.3% (23rd)40.3% (26th)41.1% (3rd)
Midrange42.3% (12th)42.1% (18th)43.0% (10th)42.0% (15th)
Corner 342.9% (2nd)38.5% (13th)38.4% (15th)41.1% (29th)
Above-the-break 336.9% (2nd)34.2% (7th)32.6% (30th)36.4% (26th)

Matchups on Fri, Dec 25

5 games
  • Spurs at Knicks12:00 PM ET

    How the Spurs beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Spurs defense there ranks 1st (34.6% allowed).

    How the Knicks beat the Spurs

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Knicks shoot 44.9% from midrange (2nd), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Heat at Celtics2:30 PM ET

    How the Heat beat the Celtics

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Heat defense there ranks 16th (34.7% allowed).

    How the Celtics beat the Heat

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • 76ers at Lakers5:00 PM ET

    How the 76ers beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim33.4% of 76ers shots come at the rim (5th most), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).

    How the Lakers beat the 76ers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Thunder at Timberwolves8:00 PM ET

    How the Thunder beat the Timberwolves

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    How the Timberwolves beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Timberwolves shoot 36.5% from above the break (3rd), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at Warriors10:30 PM ET

    How the Nuggets beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Nuggets shoot 48.4% in the paint (2nd), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).

    How the Warriors beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.