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Thunder at Timberwolves · Fri, Dec 25 · 8:00 PM ET

Oklahoma City at Minnesota. Here is where each team has the edge.

Thunder reportTimberwolves report

Oklahoma CityMinnesota

8:00 PM ET
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Pregame win chance

The win-chance line starts at tip-off.

Every basket moves it.

From team Elo ratings, home court and rest. How this works

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Model vs the line

Betting tools
MIN win: books
41.2%
MIN win: Courtside
31.0%
MIN +4.5 covers
43.7%
Total (no model yet)
233.5

No lean on this game. Leans start once both teams have played 20 games, and then only when our number is well away from the books'. Early in the season a big gap usually means our model is behind. How leans work.

Consensus of 3 US sportsbooks, updated 10:40 AM ET. Build a parlay.

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Analysis, not advice. Our numbers are model estimates and can be wrong; no bet is a sure thing. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal. Set a budget you can afford to lose. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

01Where the edges are

Based on 2025-26

Thunder edges

No clear mismatch in Oklahoma City's favor.

Timberwolves edges

No clear mismatch in Minnesota's favor.

Key battles

  • Oklahoma City's offense shoots efficiently (4th), but Minnesota's defense contests every shot (5th). Watch the shooting.

An edge is where one team ranks top 5 on a four-factor battle and the other ranks bottom 8. How edges work

Using last season's numbers until both teams have played 10 games this season. Rosters may have changed.

02Tale of the tape

Based on 2025-26
OKCRankStatRankMIN
119.87thOffensive rating12th117.6
108.51stDefensive rating8th114.3
+11.21stNet rating10th+3.3
98.516thPace9th99.8
56.14thEffective FG %6th55.9
10.82ndTurnover %18th12.4
22.328thOffensive rebound %15th25.7
21.313thFree throw rate10th21.5
51.92ndOpponent eFG %5th52.9
14.02ndForced turnover %14th12.4
74.411thDefensive rebound %20th73.7
18.43rdOpponent FT rate24th22.0

Game plan

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03Form and season series

Thunder6-4 in the last 10

  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W

Timberwolves5-5 in the last 10

  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W

2025-26 series: Wed, Nov 26 MIN 105, OKC 113 · Fri, Dec 19 OKC 107, MIN 112 · Thu, Jan 29 OKC 111, MIN 123 · Sun, Mar 15 MIN 103, OKC 116

04Key players

Current roster · 2025-26 numbers