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Game plans

Thursday, October 29

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Bucks at Wizards

How the Bucks beat the Wizards

  1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Bucks shoot 42.9% from the corners (2nd), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack the rimThe Bucks shoot 68.7% at the rim (5th), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).
  3. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Bucks defense there ranks 15th (42.0% allowed).
  4. TempoSlow it downThe Bucks play at 96.8 possessions per 48 minutes (23rd in pace), the Wizards at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.
  5. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony DavisDavis (20.4 points per game): best in the paint (44% on 77 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (38%, league 42%).

How the Wizards beat the Bucks

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
  2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Wizards defense there ranks 28th (40.9% allowed).
  3. AttackAttack the corner 3The Wizards shoot 39.2% from the corners (10th), and the Bucks allow 41.1% there (29th of 30).
  4. AttackAttack the rimThe Wizards shoot 67.3% at the rim (9th), and the Bucks allow 68.5% there (25th of 30).
  5. TempoPush the paceThe Wizards play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Bucks at 96.8 (23rd). Run and make them keep up.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneMIL offenseWAS defenseWAS offenseMIL defense
At the rim68.7% (5th)68.5% (26th)67.3% (9th)68.5% (25th)
Paint42.7% (23rd)40.6% (2nd)38.9% (28th)41.1% (3rd)
Midrange42.3% (12th)41.9% (14th)43.4% (8th)42.0% (15th)
Corner 342.9% (2nd)40.9% (28th)39.2% (10th)41.1% (29th)
Above-the-break 336.9% (2nd)35.5% (20th)34.9% (16th)36.4% (26th)

02Matchups on Thu, Oct 29

3 games
  • Cavaliers at Hawks7:00 PM ET

    How the Cavaliers beat the Hawks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    How the Hawks beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Hawks shoot 36.4% from above the break (4th), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Kings at Pelicans8:00 PM ET

    How the Kings beat the Pelicans

    1. AttackAttack the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).
    2. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.

    How the Pelicans beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the rim40.4% of Pelicans shots come at the rim (1st most), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Pelicans defense there ranks 28th (47.9% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Grizzlies at Trail Blazers10:00 PM ET

    How the Grizzlies beat the Trail Blazers

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd) and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
    2. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Grizzlies force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th), and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Grizzlies

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd), and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
    2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Grizzlies force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th) and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.