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Game plans · Wednesday, December 10

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
at

Bucks at Kings

How the Bucks beat the Kings

  1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Bucks shoot 36.9% from above the break (2nd), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack midrange12.6% of Bucks shots come from midrange (3rd most), and the Kings allow 43.7% there (27th of 30).
  3. AttackAttack the rimThe Bucks shoot 68.7% at the rim (5th), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
  4. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Bucks defense there ranks 3rd (41.1% allowed).
  5. Key scorerKey scorer: Zach LaVineLaVine (19.2 points per game): best from the corners (45% on 55 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%). 37% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

How the Kings beat the Bucks

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
  2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Kings defense there ranks 17th (39.0% allowed).
  3. AttackAttack the rimThe Kings shoot 68.2% at the rim (6th), and the Bucks allow 68.5% there (25th of 30).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneMIL offenseSAC defenseSAC offenseMIL defense
At the rim68.7% (5th)69.8% (28th)68.2% (6th)68.5% (25th)
Paint42.7% (23rd)48.7% (29th)45.7% (9th)41.1% (3rd)
Midrange42.3% (12th)43.7% (27th)41.8% (16th)42.0% (15th)
Corner 342.9% (2nd)39.0% (17th)35.1% (28th)41.1% (29th)
Above-the-break 336.9% (2nd)37.6% (30th)33.7% (25th)36.4% (26th)

Matchups on Wed, Dec 10

2 games
  • Suns at ThunderFinal

    How the Suns beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.9% of Suns shots come from above the break (4th most), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).

    How the Thunder beat the Suns

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Thunder shoot 67.2% at the rim (10th), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at LakersFinal

    How the Spurs beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint21.5% of Lakers shots come in the paint (7th most) and they make 48.8% (1st). The Spurs defense there ranks 7th (42.5% allowed).

    How the Lakers beat the Spurs

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Lakers shoot 44.4% from midrange (5th), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.