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Game plans · Saturday, February 7

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Heat at Hawks

How the Heat beat the Hawks

  1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Run and make them keep up.
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

How the Hawks beat the Heat

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
  2. TempoSlow it downThe Hawks play at 100.7 possessions per 48 minutes (7th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneMIA offenseATL defenseATL offenseMIA defense
At the rim65.1% (20th)65.2% (10th)64.9% (21st)65.3% (11th)
Paint44.2% (17th)44.2% (18th)45.0% (14th)44.8% (20th)
Midrange37.8% (26th)42.0% (17th)42.3% (13th)39.5% (4th)
Corner 337.6% (19th)38.1% (10th)38.9% (11th)39.0% (18th)
Above-the-break 335.6% (9th)34.6% (15th)36.4% (4th)34.7% (16th)

Matchups on Sat, Feb 7

10 games
  • Wizards at NetsFinal

    How the Wizards beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Wizards shoot 39.2% from the corners (10th), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Wizards play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Nets at 96.2 (25th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Nets beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the corner 311.5% of Nets shots come from the corners (9th most), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Nets play at 96.2 possessions per 48 minutes (25th in pace), the Wizards at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Rockets at ThunderFinal

    How the Rockets beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Rockets shoot 36.1% from above the break (7th), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).

    How the Thunder beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Thunder defense there ranks 1st (39.9% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at SpursFinal

    How the Mavericks beat the Spurs

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    How the Spurs beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Spurs shoot 43.6% from midrange (7th), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Spurs shoot 45.7% in the paint (10th), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Jazz at MagicFinal

    How the Jazz beat the Magic

    1. AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).

    How the Magic beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim32.6% of Magic shots come at the rim (6th most), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hornets at HawksFinal

    How the Hornets beat the Hawks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Hornets play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Hawks force turnovers on 13.2% of plays (6th) and the Hornets give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).

    How the Hawks beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Hawks defense there ranks 15th (34.6% allowed).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Hawks play at 100.7 possessions per 48 minutes (7th in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at BullsFinal

    How the Nuggets beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Nuggets shoot 37.8% from above the break (1st), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).

    How the Bulls beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim36.1% of Bulls shots come at the rim (2nd most), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at LakersFinal

    How the Warriors beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).

    How the Lakers beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Lakers shoot 44.4% from midrange (5th), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • 76ers at SunsFinal

    How the 76ers beat the Suns

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Suns grab 28.9% of their misses (7th) and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim33.4% of 76ers shots come at the rim (5th most), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).

    How the Suns beat the 76ers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Suns grab 28.9% of their misses (7th), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Grizzlies at Trail BlazersFinal

    How the Grizzlies beat the Trail Blazers

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd) and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
    2. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Grizzlies force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th), and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Grizzlies

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd), and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
    2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Grizzlies force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th) and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Cavaliers at KingsFinal

    How the Cavaliers beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Cavaliers shoot 47.8% in the paint (4th), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Cavaliers shoot 44.5% from midrange (4th), and the Kings allow 43.7% there (27th of 30).

    How the Kings beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.