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Game plans

Sunday, October 25

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Grizzlies at Nuggets

How the Grizzlies beat the Nuggets

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
  2. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Nuggets allow 45.3% there (22nd of 30).
  3. TempoPush the paceThe Grizzlies play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Nuggets at 97.7 (20th). Run and make them keep up.

How the Nuggets beat the Grizzlies

  1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Grizzlies allow 39.6% there (23rd of 30).
  2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Nuggets defense there ranks 22nd (45.3% allowed).
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Ty JeromeJerome (19.7 points per game): best in the paint (53% on 64 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%). 40% on the left side, 47% on the right; push him left.
  5. TempoSlow it downThe Nuggets play at 97.7 possessions per 48 minutes (20th in pace), the Grizzlies at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneMEM offenseDEN defenseDEN offenseMEM defense
At the rim64.1% (25th)69.1% (27th)66.7% (13th)68.4% (24th)
Paint45.9% (8th)45.3% (22nd)48.4% (2nd)44.9% (21st)
Midrange40.3% (19th)40.4% (10th)44.8% (3rd)43.1% (24th)
Corner 336.5% (27th)36.5% (4th)44.2% (1st)39.6% (23rd)
Above-the-break 334.8% (18th)34.2% (11th)37.8% (1st)35.2% (18th)

02Matchups on Sun, Oct 25

7 games
  • Lakers at Jazz5:00 PM ET

    How the Lakers beat the Jazz

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Lakers shoot 73.4% at the rim (1st), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).

    How the Jazz beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint21.5% of Lakers shots come in the paint (7th most) and they make 48.8% (1st). The Jazz defense there ranks 30th (48.8% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pacers at Nets6:00 PM ET

    How the Pacers beat the Nets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Michael Porter Jr.Porter (24.2 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 227 shots, league 66%), worst from the corners (32%, league 39%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Pacers play at 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes (8th in pace), the Nets at 96.2 (25th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Nets beat the Pacers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Nets play at 96.2 possessions per 48 minutes (25th in pace), the Pacers at 100.3 (8th). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Magic at Knicks7:00 PM ET

    How the Magic beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Magic defense there ranks 13th (38.5% allowed).

    How the Knicks beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Knicks play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Magic at 99.3 (12th). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Raptors at Timberwolves7:00 PM ET

    How the Raptors beat the Timberwolves

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Raptors play at 97.5 possessions per 48 minutes (22nd in pace), the Timberwolves at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Timberwolves beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Timberwolves defense there ranks 3rd (62.4% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Clippers at Thunder7:00 PM ET

    How the Clippers beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Clippers shoot 41.6% from the corners (5th), and the Thunder allow 39.9% there (24th of 30).

    How the Thunder beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Thunder shoot 35.9% from above the break (8th), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pistons at 76ers7:30 PM ET

    How the Pistons beat the 76ers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    How the 76ers beat the Pistons

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd) and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Grizzlies at Kings9:00 PM ET

    How the Grizzlies beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.0% of Grizzlies shots come from above the break (8th most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).

    How the Kings beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Kings defense there ranks 29th (48.7% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.