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Game plans

Monday, March 16

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
at

Grizzlies at Bulls

How the Grizzlies beat the Bulls

  1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.0% of Grizzlies shots come from above the break (8th most), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

How the Bulls beat the Grizzlies

  1. AttackAttack the rim36.1% of Bulls shots come at the rim (2nd most), and the Grizzlies allow 68.4% there (24th of 30).
  2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Bulls defense there ranks 6th (42.4% allowed).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Ty JeromeJerome (19.7 points per game): best in the paint (53% on 64 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%). 40% on the left side, 47% on the right; push him left.
  4. AttackAttack the corner 312.0% of Bulls shots come from the corners (6th most), and the Grizzlies allow 39.6% there (23rd of 30).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneMEM offenseCHI defenseCHI offenseMEM defense
At the rim64.1% (25th)65.0% (8th)62.7% (30th)68.4% (24th)
Paint45.9% (8th)42.4% (6th)44.0% (18th)44.9% (21st)
Midrange40.3% (19th)43.1% (25th)41.0% (18th)43.1% (24th)
Corner 336.5% (27th)37.4% (7th)37.3% (22nd)39.6% (23rd)
Above-the-break 334.8% (18th)36.6% (29th)34.9% (17th)35.2% (18th)

02Matchups on Mon, Mar 16

8 games
  • Magic at HawksFinal

    How the Magic beat the Hawks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    How the Hawks beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at WizardsFinal

    How the Warriors beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).

    How the Wizards beat the Warriors

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Warriors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Trail Blazers at NetsFinal

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the corner 312.2% of Trail Blazers shots come from the corners (5th most), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.6% of Trail Blazers shots come from above the break (5th most), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).

    How the Nets beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Trail Blazers force turnovers on 13.0% of plays (7th) and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Nets play at 96.2 possessions per 48 minutes (25th in pace), the Trail Blazers at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Suns at CelticsFinal

    How the Suns beat the Celtics

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th) and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.9% of Suns shots come from above the break (4th most), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).

    How the Celtics beat the Suns

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Celtics shoot 70.5% at the rim (2nd), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
    2. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th), and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Grizzlies at BullsFinal

    How the Grizzlies beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.0% of Grizzlies shots come from above the break (8th most), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    How the Bulls beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack the rim36.1% of Bulls shots come at the rim (2nd most), and the Grizzlies allow 68.4% there (24th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Bulls defense there ranks 6th (42.4% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at PelicansFinal

    How the Mavericks beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).

    How the Pelicans beat the Mavericks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Lakers at RocketsFinal

    How the Lakers beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Lakers defense there ranks 9th (43.0% allowed).

    How the Rockets beat the Lakers

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.8% of Rockets shots come from midrange (2nd most), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at ClippersFinal

    How the Spurs beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Spurs play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Clippers beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Clippers play at 95.6 possessions per 48 minutes (28th in pace), the Spurs at 99.1 (13th). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.