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Game plans · Monday, March 2

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
at

Grizzlies at Mavericks

How the Grizzlies beat the Mavericks

  1. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

How the Mavericks beat the Grizzlies

  1. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).
  2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Mavericks defense there ranks 24th (45.5% allowed).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Ty JeromeJerome (19.7 points per game): best in the paint (53% on 64 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%). 40% on the left side, 47% on the right; push him left.
  4. AttackAttack the paint21.5% of Mavericks shots come in the paint (8th most), and the Grizzlies allow 44.9% there (21st of 30).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneMEM offenseDAL defenseDAL offenseMEM defense
At the rim64.1% (25th)66.2% (16th)64.6% (24th)68.4% (24th)
Paint45.9% (8th)45.5% (24th)45.4% (11th)44.9% (21st)
Midrange40.3% (19th)42.7% (23rd)39.4% (24th)43.1% (24th)
Corner 336.5% (27th)37.2% (6th)37.1% (25th)39.6% (23rd)
Above-the-break 334.8% (18th)34.2% (9th)33.2% (28th)35.2% (18th)

Matchups on Mon, Mar 2

4 games
  • Rockets at WizardsFinal

    How the Rockets beat the Wizards

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st), and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Wizards at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Wizards beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st) and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at BucksFinal

    How the Celtics beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Celtics defense there ranks 2nd (36.2% allowed).

    How the Bucks beat the Celtics

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Bucks shoot 36.9% from above the break (2nd), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Bucks defense there ranks 26th (36.4% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at JazzFinal

    How the Nuggets beat the Jazz

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Nuggets shoot 48.4% in the paint (2nd), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).

    How the Jazz beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Nuggets allow 45.3% there (22nd of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Clippers at WarriorsFinal

    How the Clippers beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Clippers shoot 41.6% from the corners (5th), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    How the Warriors beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.