Game plans · Sunday, April 12
How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.
Plan any matchup
Lakers at Magic
How the Lakers beat the Magic
- AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).
- AttackAttack the rimThe Lakers shoot 73.4% at the rim (1st), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
How the Magic beat the Lakers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
- AttackAttack the rim32.6% of Magic shots come at the rim (6th most), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).
- Take awayTake away the paint21.5% of Lakers shots come in the paint (7th most) and they make 48.8% (1st). The Magic defense there ranks 23rd (45.3% allowed).
- AttackAttack midrangeThe Magic shoot 43.0% from midrange (10th), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).
| Zone | LAL offense | ORL defense | ORL offense | LAL defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 73.4% (1st) | 67.5% (21st) | 65.4% (19th) | 70.5% (29th) |
| Paint | 48.8% (1st) | 45.3% (23rd) | 40.3% (26th) | 43.0% (9th) |
| Midrange | 44.4% (5th) | 42.1% (18th) | 43.0% (10th) | 44.7% (29th) |
| Corner 3 | 34.9% (29th) | 38.5% (13th) | 38.4% (15th) | 37.7% (8th) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 36.3% (6th) | 34.2% (7th) | 32.6% (30th) | 34.2% (10th) |
Matchups on Sun, Apr 12
- Magic at Celtics
How the Magic beat the Celtics
- TempoPush the paceThe Magic play at 99.3 possessions per 48 minutes (12th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
- Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Magic defense there ranks 7th (34.2% allowed).
How the Celtics beat the Magic
- TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Magic at 99.3 (12th). Make it a half-court game.
- AttackAttack the paintThe Celtics shoot 48.2% in the paint (3rd), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).
- Wizards at Cavaliers
How the Wizards beat the Cavaliers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
- AttackAttack the corner 3The Wizards shoot 39.2% from the corners (10th), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).
How the Cavaliers beat the Wizards
- Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Cavaliers defense there ranks 20th (42.4% allowed).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony DavisDavis (20.4 points per game): best in the paint (44% on 77 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (38%, league 42%).
- Pistons at Pacers
How the Pistons beat the Pacers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.
- AttackAttack the paint20.8% of Pistons shots come in the paint (10th most), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).
How the Pacers beat the Pistons
- Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
- TempoPush the paceThe Pacers play at 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes (8th in pace), the Pistons at 98.3 (18th). Run and make them keep up.
- Hawks at Heat
How the Hawks beat the Heat
- Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
- TempoSlow it downThe Hawks play at 100.7 possessions per 48 minutes (7th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.
How the Heat beat the Hawks
- TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Run and make them keep up.
- Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).
- Hornets at Knicks
How the Hornets beat the Knicks
- TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
- Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Hornets defense there ranks 16th (38.8% allowed).
How the Knicks beat the Hornets
- Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Knicks defense there ranks 21st (35.5% allowed).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon MillerMiller (20.2 points per game): best from the corners (42% on 71 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (37%, league 42%).
- Bucks at 76ers
How the Bucks beat the 76ers
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe 76ers force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th) and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).
How the 76ers beat the Bucks
- Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
- Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The 76ers defense there ranks 20th (39.1% allowed).
- Nets at Raptors
How the Nets beat the Raptors
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
How the Raptors beat the Nets
- TurnoversPressure the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th), and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Michael Porter Jr.Porter (24.2 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 227 shots, league 66%), worst from the corners (32%, league 39%).
- Bulls at Mavericks
How the Bulls beat the Mavericks
- Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).
How the Mavericks beat the Bulls
- AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).
- Grizzlies at Rockets
How the Grizzlies beat the Rockets
- Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
- GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st) and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
How the Rockets beat the Grizzlies
- GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st), and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
- TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Grizzlies at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.
- Pelicans at Timberwolves
How the Pelicans beat the Timberwolves
- AttackAttack the corner 3The Pelicans shoot 39.2% from the corners (9th), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
How the Timberwolves beat the Pelicans
- TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
- Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).
- Suns at Thunder
How the Suns beat the Thunder
- Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.9% of Suns shots come from above the break (4th most), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).
How the Thunder beat the Suns
- AttackAttack the rimThe Thunder shoot 67.2% at the rim (10th), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
- Nuggets at Spurs
How the Nuggets beat the Spurs
- AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
How the Spurs beat the Nuggets
- Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
- AttackAttack the rim32.3% of Spurs shots come at the rim (7th most), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).
- Jazz at Lakers
How the Jazz beat the Lakers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
- Take awayTake away the paint21.5% of Lakers shots come in the paint (7th most) and they make 48.8% (1st). The Jazz defense there ranks 30th (48.8% allowed).
How the Lakers beat the Jazz
- AttackAttack the rimThe Lakers shoot 73.4% at the rim (1st), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).
- AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).
- Warriors at Clippers
How the Warriors beat the Clippers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).
How the Clippers beat the Warriors
- AttackAttack the corner 3The Clippers shoot 41.6% from the corners (5th), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).
- Kings at Trail Blazers
How the Kings beat the Trail Blazers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).
How the Trail Blazers beat the Kings
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.6% of Trail Blazers shots come from above the break (5th most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
- AttackAttack the rim33.5% of Trail Blazers shots come at the rim (4th most), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.